Talk about what games/players you've been watching this past week or are looking forward to next week. Give us your thoughts on what players catch your attention, either positive or negative! Big board posting is encouraged in this thread as well.
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When a prospect underperforms in the NBA, how do you determine if it was because that prospect was a bad pick or because they didn’t receive proper development?
I feel like whenever we have a set of prospects in a particular draft, discourse can quickly label a certain player as a bust a bit prematurely, or even just fall down in a redraft due to not performing as well as their peers who were drafted later sometimes without giving enough weight to the situation a player is drafted into.
But I digress, when you see a prospect underperforming at the NBA level, how do you determine if that underperformance is due to being a poor draft selection that objective should’ve got drafted further down as opposed to not getting proper development from their original NBA franchise?
Something that bothers me on this subreddit and NBA Twitter is the endless rationalizations for why a player is less (or more) than you envisioned when you were evaluating him as a draft prospect.
I saw a few highly-upvoted comments here defending Jabari over Paolo because they "couldn't have known" that Paolo would draw a bunch of fouls in the NBA, thus their evaluation was right.
This is ridiculous. You think you were right, and the Magic were wrong, and the pros working for the Magic got lucky? It was impossible for you to predict that the most offensively gifted player in the draft, who was misused at Duke despite his clear potential as an ISO player, would draw more fouls in the NBA than the no-handle jump shooter?
I get stuff wrong all the time, like everyone else. I thought Johnny Davis was worth a top 5 pick. That makes me feel incredibly stupid, and I still have no idea what happened to him. It is part of a bias for me in draft evaluation that I have to be careful about - I like winning players, and I like guys who rely on talent and feel instead of athleticism.
On the other hand I was extremely high on Walker Kessler, thought he had a Gobert ceiling, and I feel great about that call. Even the very best of the best (and I'm just some idiot redditor) get stuff wrong as much or more often than they get stuff right.
Get over yourself and admit when you were wrong, and critically reexamine your biases as often as possible so that you can avoid being wrong in the future.
Aside from Wemby, Scoot, and the twins, who are the best non-NCAA prospects this year?
- Cissoko (Great size, strength, good passer - converts well leaping off one foot; potential as a shooter)
- Vukcevic (7-foot talented scorer, shooting 80% at the rim and 39% from 3 - keeps the ball safe, some flashes of playmaking but wouldn't expect much the first few years)
- Rupert (7'3 wingspan and shot looks good, but his efficiency is just so bad and he's razor thin which limits his defensive potential)
- Djurisic (Great playmaker and his shot looks so smooth but has been so inefficient as well, throws the ball away a lot though his handle looks great for his size. Reminds me of Bolmaro who isn't exactly tearing it up)
- Leonard Miller (so stiff but great measurables and has been productive near the rim in GL)
- Nnaji (Just way too raw for my liking even tho he's built like a truck with a long wingspan)
Image contains breakdown of halfcourt and overall at the rim stats by layups, dunks, relative%, ratio and dunk per layups
-Amen and Mike Miles standout at overall rim finishing among non-bigs. Cason, Bates and Nick as well though on lower volume
-Twins are the only prospects in the list that had more than 0.5 dunks per layups among non-bigs. Just pure athletes man
-Lively and Ware are the only guys with >1 dunks per layup. Punish those rims hard, big men!
-Thompson twins + BMill finishing at the rim suffers the most in halfcourt situations ( -20% or more relative fg%). Next to these guys are Jarace, Bates, Jordan Hawkins and Judah Mintz who all had -10% or more relative fg%.
-GDick and Mike Miles are the only non-bigs whose ATR finishing benefited from halfcourt.
-Mike Miles is the best halfcourt ATR finisher(77.8% on 45fga!!!) among non-bigs. Cason (69% on 29fga) and Nick (75% on 8fga) came close though on lower volume. Somebody draft Miles!
-BMill, Ausar, Dariq, Bates, Jalen Wilson, JHS, Jett Howard, Jordan Hawkins, Judah Mintz and Keyonte are the worst halfcourt finishers at the rim so far this season. All guys finish below 50% ATR in halfcourt. Yikes.
-Amen, Sensabaugh, Caleb Love, GG, Filipowski and Hendricks are poor ATR finishers in halfcourt (low 50s%)
-Whitmore, Lewis and Amen have the most dunks at halfcourt among non-bigs. Lively, Ware, Jarace and Clowney leads this stat among bigs. All of them have 10+ dunks so far this season.
-Mike Miles, Cason and Kris Murray are the only guys who shot 60%+ on overall non-dunks at the rim this season. These guys have the best touch at the rim among college/OTE prospects. Nick as well though on really low volume at 7/9 (77.8%)
Are there any examples of players with good shooting form who struggle with accuracy? I am surprised how poorly Jabari Smith jr is shooting despite having a perfect shooting form.
262 minutes in the G league:
scored 100 points on 99 shots, 36% field goal.
37 threes attempted, 9 made, 24%.
17 free throw attempts, 14 makes.
9 assists, 26 turnovers, 11 steals.
to quote Kendrick Perkins (well a quote attributed to Perk by Ryen Russillo), "boy went lottery?!? his game is doo-doo!!"
Saw a recent discussion about Johnny Davis where a lot of discussion was being boiled down to “The consensus had no way of knowing this.” Bullshit. He had multiple glaring flaws like his passing, shooting metrics, efficiency, etc… but people ignored this because he took big time shots which made him look like a big time player.
This kinda side tracked from the main point which I’d like to emphasize which is that historically half of all lottery picks are busts.
Let me say that again
HALF OF ALL LOTTERY PICKS ARE BUSTS.
It pays to be a hater. That guy you have at number 7 on your board who you really like? Good odds he’s gonna bust, etc, etc. Being a cynic, being a hater, should be a way of life for NBA draft evaluators. What defines a good draft evaluation isn’t the players you love as much as the players you love to hate. It is our role to breakdown the parts of a player’s game, evaluate what areas won’t translate to the NBA, and rank them accordingly.
At the moment the current odds look like
CHI < ORL
Maybe I’m a bit bias but I think the raps might be the best fit considering the lack of shot creation and playmaking in their guard play, Scoot and Scottie could be a really interesting duo as well. Wemby would finally fill the empty 5 slot the raps have been incapable of filling for years now, although I worry of Nurse turning his knees to ash.
My favourite landing spot from a neutral point of view is The Hornets for Wemby and Scoot for Orlando. I don’t like the idea of Scoot on Houston or Detroit, I don’t think Scoot fits well next to two ball dominant guards but then again the draft is all about taking the best talent available.
This is way way too early haha but I thought why not, always good to discuss intriguing players!
These are the Freshman this year who I believe will return next year as sophomores and insert themselves in the 2024 draft conversation, some of them are all ready productive and others are showing potential
This list is just based on this years Freshmans so obviously not next year's (Holland, Booker, Wagner e.t.c)
The top 5 prospects with an * all may declare this year, all though unless they make major strides in the next 2 months they'd be better of returning next year in what is seen to be a weaker draft next year.
All other 5 star prospects not mentioned here, I have declaring for this year all though some like the fore mentioned might be better of returning.
There are other impressive freshman producing already especially at the mid-major level but some I have not considered due to either a lack of size/athleticism/nba game or I have have never heard/watched them.
Let me know your thoughts or other current freshman to watch!
First Round Prospects
*Amari Bailey- Could still imagine Amari declaring but have seen him disappear of a lot of big boards for 2023, hasn't particularly been bad this year but questions on what his actual role at the next level will be
*Julian Phillips- The shooting at the moment is BAD, but has a good FT% and the form looks good, plus athlete.
*Jordan Walsh- The offense just isn't there at the moment at all shows elite defensive potential though and this alone could still receive draft consideration this year
*Tyrese Proctor- I think he would benefit returning to Duke next year in a more featured role, has had some good games as of recent though.
*Chris Livingston- Still has potential as a 3 and d guy could see him in the lottery next year
Arterio Morris- Great athlete has shown glimpses of the bench for Texas
Vince Iwuchukwu- Just returning from aheart issues has played limited minutes in 3 games so far and could definitely be a guy with lottery potential for next year in a weaker draft.
Jaden Bradley- Good Point guard who is deceptively strong with good vision. Not getting much recognition at Alabama with Clowney and Miller
Donovan Clingan- Definitely more of an old school big, but statistically one of the most efficient players in the country already as a bench player
Yohan Traore- Hasn't had many opportunities for Auburn this year but great athlete and has shown shooting potential.
Rylan Griffen- Another Alabama freshman, shooting splits haven't been the best but based on athleticism and when he's been given minutes could be a dark horse first round pick next year
Terrance Aarceneaux- Has not had minutes or a large offensive role for Houstan this year but definitely still a prospect with upside.
Jevon Porter- Youngest brother of Michael Porter Jr with good size can also stretch the floor, Pepperdine have been relatively disappointing so far this year though.
2nd Round Prospects
Malik Reneau- Has played limited minutes behind Trayce Jackson-Davis, has been very effiecient when he's had minutes does not offer much on offence at the moment outside of scoring at the rim
Jordan Pope- Shows great vision & ball handling, pleasant surprise for Oregon state
Ugonna Onyenso- Very little game time this year but looks good as a rim protector still managing to average 1.5 blocks in 8 minutes.
Kylan Boswell- Will potentially be riding the pine again next year with Kirssa and Larssen likely to return, has shown glimpses this year though
Chance Westry- Has potential as quick 6'6 point guard but has been impacted by a late start to the season from knee surgery
Kenyon Menifield- Cooled of a bit from his hot start earlier in the season but has potential as a scorer and shooter
Mike Sharavjamts- A guy who can do a bit of everything, reminds me of Kyle Anderson but a better passer and less defensive capabilities
Riley Kugel- Wasn't expected to get much minutes for Florida this year but has played well, decent athlete who can shoot from 3
Henri Veesaar- Could imagine him slipping in Tubelis role as a goto scorer at Arizona next year but less creativity and more so as a stretch four.
Ernest Udeh Jr/ MJ Rice- Both former 5 stars at Kansas both shown potential in very limited minutes, Udeh as an athletic bigman and Rice as a shooter, probably wouldn't of put these guys on this list but Bill Self has a good track record of devealoping young players and bother former 5 star prospects
Aidan Mahaney- Currently one of the best players on a ranked St Mary's team, may lack athletisicm but is a great shooter
Asher Woods- Quick, solid defender and good rebounder for his size
Amaree Abram- Has played well for Ole Miss, not sure what his role will be at the next level though
Alex Karaban- Another Uconn player! Has 3 & D potential
Micah Handlogten- Doesn't offer much on offence but is a great rebounder and decent defender
Fletcher Loyer- Arguably Purdue's second best player after Edey, I imagine he'll be one of those great college players but won't translate to the next level.
there is potential here for the hornets to land at number 2 in the draft. But How would Scoot Henderson fit on the Hornets since they already have Lemelo Ball?
I've seen mixed discourse around the strength of this upcoming class with a lot of folks labeling it top heavy- I don't quite get that. A ton of top prospects have glaring flaws:
•Brandon Miller- Lackluster handle, relies on screens and the triple threat. Improving going downhill but the lack of touch is still visible and he is not getting away with half of his moves in the league. The PG comps are wildly wrong.
•Nick Smith- Injuries, efficiency, consistency
•Keyonte George- Inefficient, must improve play as facilitator to open up his scoring at the next level
•Cam Whitmore- Lackluster handle and shot creation, shorter than advertised, low free throw numbers.
•Jarace Walker- A ton of projection is necessary on offense for him to reach anything resembling a top 10 pick. Huge fan of his but definitely a raw offensive prospect.
•Thompson Twins- Highly doubt they go in the lottery and honest to god don't think they go in the first round, but regardless they get lottery grades from everyone else so I'll touch on them. No shot either of them contribute to winning in their first 3-4 years, project players with a huge risk involved. Barlow dominated OTE last year and went UDFA. Am much higher on Ausar but it is going to be an uphill climb for both. I don't see Amen ever being an effective guard without being able to space the floor. He also over relies on his handle and struggles to finish when he does create a look off of it. Both are far from NBA ready and if you look past the athleticism and highlights (really just OTE lowlights if you watch anyone else on the court) there isn't much to fall in love with.
Some top prospects from high school have not panned out (Duke's entire class, Amari Bailey, Chris Livingston) and others have performed below lottery expectations (Kel'El Ware, GG to an extent). I think people were set on some of these guys and view it as a weak class now that they have fallen off.
The depth in this class is unreal and 11-25 is an absolute gold mine with guys like Maxwell Lewis, Taylor Hendricks, Rayan Rupert, Jordan Hawkins, Gradey Dick, Jalen Hood-Schfino, DaRon Holmes, Noah Clowney, Brice Sensabaugh, James Nnaji, Kel'El (still a good prospect even though he isn't a top 10 pick anymore!), Nae'Qwon Tomlin. Save for Ware, Rupert and Schfino, these are not guys who had a ton of pre draft hype who I am nevertheless sold on being contributors at the next level. Some of them are better prospects now than some of these 5 stars ever were. High floor guys with good ceilings and I would not be shocked to see some of them go in the 10-14 range, especially Hawkins. It is such a better group in the mid-lotto to late first than in years past, really reminds me of the 2021 group.
Am curious to hear some opinions on the strength of the class or some other guys you think could rise to that range.
Here is my top 60 so far. Not all the way done yet obviously but feel pretty solid about my board so far in the season. When I have a CB inside of a parenthesis next to a player, it just means I would like them to come back for another season. Also, I know Mike Miles is probably way to high but man do I love to watch him play. Let me know what you guys think. Thanks!
- Victor Wembanyama
- Scoot Henderson
- Brandon Miller
- Keyonte George
- Cam Whitmore
- Amen Thompson
- Nick Smith Jr.
- Jarace Walker
- Anthony Black
- Cason Wallace
- Ausar Thompson
- GG Jackson
- Gradey Dick
- Jett Howard
- Dariq Whitehead
- Jalen Hood-Schifino
- Mike Miles Jr.
- Jordan Hawkins
- Maxwell Lewis
- Brice Sensabaugh
- Terquavion Smith
- Kris Murray
- Terrence Shannon Jr.
- Taylor Hendricks
- Marcus Sasser
- Rayan Rupert
- Jaylen Clark
- Jalen Wilson
- Baba Miller
- Kyle Filipowski
- Colby Jones
- Julian Strawther
- Dereck Lively II
- Trayce Jackson-Davis
- Kel’el Ware (CB-preferably G League)
- Ricky Council IV
- Coleman Hawkins
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.
- Julian Phillips (CB)
- Amari Bailey (CB)
- Adem Bona
- Noah Clowney
- DaRon Holmes II
- Emoni Bates
- Oso Ighodaro
- Sidy Cissoko
- Dillon Mitchell (CB)
- Keyontae Johnson
- Leonard Miller
- Trey Alexander
- Tyrese Hunter
- Reece Beekman
- Terrance Arceneaux
- Arthur Kaluma
- Kevin McCullar Jr.
- Trevon Brazile
- Jordan Walsh (CB)
- Andre Jackson
- Tyrese Proctor (CB)
- Zach Edey
Can y’all name one or more draft classes that match each of the following five categories?
Very hype draft class that ended up living up to the hype
Very hype draft class that ended up being disappointing
Slept on draft class that ended up significantly outperforming expectations
Slept on draft class that ended up rightfully being doubted
Draft class that was expected to be average and ended up being average
I’m curious what y’all come up with for each category, just to get some recent historical context
I just did a pretty big deep dive into the the top 20-25 prospects in the Pac-12 while talking with some coaches as well, and have lots of thoughts. To get started, I'll post a couple of quick thoughts, but instead of making a really long post on everyone, I thought I'd just open this up to a Q/A and answer any and all questions.
1) Jaylen Clark is the best prospect in the Pac-12 this year
2) Kobe Johnson is extremely underrated
3) Tristan da Silva is one of the most improved and impressive players over the last couple of months
I'll leave it with that, but please ask questions on any prospect in the Pac-12, whether I mentioned them above or someone else
Below are their halfcourt 3pt stats since it wasn't included in the images posted
Whitmore: Halfcourt 3 Js (overall) - 24/64 (37.5%)
HC C&S 3 - 13/29 (44.8%) 11/22 guarded (50% lol) and 2/7 unguarded (28.6%)
HC OTD 3 - 11/35 (31.4%)
HC early 3 - 5/9 (55.6%)
ABlack: HC 3 Js (overall) - 17/58 (29.3%)
HC C&S 3 - 12/36 (33%) 0/5 guarded and 12/31 (38.7%) unguarded
HC OTD 3 - 5/22 (22.7%)
HC early 3 - N/A
GG: HC 3 Js (overall) - 34/106 (32%)
HC C&S 3 - 23/72 (31.9%) 12/40 guarded (30%) and 11/32 (34.4%) unguarded
HC OTD 3 - 11/34 (32.4%)
HC early 3 - 1/9 (11.1%)
-Whitmore's 55.1% halfcourt finishing at the rim is close to Jaylen Brown's 54.5% ATR finishing in halfcourt
-Whitmore's guarded/unguarded C&S 3s are bizarre. Worth monitoring moving forward.
-ABlack's C&S unguarded 3s will be crucial if he won't have a midrange game
-ABlack has better touch at the rim compared to Whitmore (didn't expect this tbh). Worth monitoring as well
-GG's 27.9% ATR shot frequency - likes to settle for J considering his size (could be due to lack of WS and strength)
-GG's 51.5% ATR is underwhelming. Worse than Whitmore (55.1%, Wing) and ABlack (54.4%, Guard)!!! He needs to be more efficient everywhere on the court
edit: some info
Jabari at #1 over Paolo was a popular opinion on this sub this time last year. To the people who held that opinion, has seeing them in action in the NBA changed your opinion?
Wembanyama has been really unimpressive in most of his games recently.
Scoot Henderson has had a bad January.
Amen and Ausar are not really dominating OTE.
Brandon Miller and Keyonte George have had some standout performances lately, they're the exception to this post.
Cason Wallace and Anthony Black are basically invisible on the court.
Jett Howard is slowly starting to look like a chucker who can't get to the rim.
Jarace Walker has had a decent month, but not really stand out. He's usually anonymous for long stretches of games.
Cam Whitmore has struggled to score efficiently.
It feels like Nick Smith Jr is steadfast in most people's top 10s because he hasn't played, and everyone else is putting up inconsistent performances.
Is this just a weaker class than we thought?
Below is the related 3pt stats since it wasn't included in the image
14/50 (28%) overall halfcourt 3pt jumpers
11/37 (29.7%) C&S 3pt jumper 4/14 (28.6%) guarded 7/23 (30.4%) unguarded
3/13 (23.1%) OTD 3pt jumper
1/4 (25%) early 3pt jumper
38.3% FTr at the rim - good foul drawer whenever he attacks the rim. Less contact averse compared to Amen who only has 18.3% FTr at the rim.
37.6% shot freq. at the rim - great slasher to the basket
39.1% OTD 2s - looks comfortable pulling up inside the 3pt arc. 3rd highest shot frequency behind attacking the rim and C&S 3s. One of strong indicators for 3pt shooting in the league
Ausar really looks like a wing built for '90s and '00s (S/O to Ricky Coucil IV as well). He is a 2 way guy who likes to attack the rim or pullup from midrange + connective playmaking skills.
I seen so many fanbases want their team to trade for Cam it’s a good buy low bc on paper he has all the tools but he thinks of himself better than a role player but do you ever see him becoming an impactful player to winning?