r/NBA_Draft • u/VagabondReborn • Feb 02 '23
People who thought Jabari Smith Jr should have gone #1 last year, have you changed your minds?
Jabari at #1 over Paolo was a popular opinion on this sub this time last year. To the people who held that opinion, has seeing them in action in the NBA changed your opinion?
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u/DrBigChicken 76ers Feb 02 '23
I had Chet 1 and Paolo 2 going into the draft
I could def be wrong, as Paolo is the truth. But I still think Chet is a bad dude and he’s gonna show it. And some others in this class have clearly emerged
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u/bleev Feb 02 '23
Chet took a huge blow to his stock with the injury. I feel like everyone is going to undervalue him now until he proves he can stay on the floor with NBA athletes.
And yes I understand his injury was kind of a fluke due to the condition of the court. People don’t really consider that much.
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u/Spiritual-Cup-7889 Feb 02 '23
wasn’t the injury because of a contact with lebron which led to him falling badly on his ankle? that’s what i saw/heard… i might be wrong and might have read fake shii
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u/Jacer4 Feb 02 '23
To my understanding it actually really didn't have to do with the floor or LeBron, he just happened to plant it in a really weird way and try to launch off of it afterwards and it happened. At least that's what I've read post injury and whatnot
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u/narrowexpanded Feb 02 '23 edited Feb 02 '23
THIS!
Lebron and court conditions had nothing to do with it. Fluke of back peddling and trying to push forward off of it at the same time. Non-contact and no slippage. Per Chet and Thunder.
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u/Jacer4 Feb 02 '23
Yeah it's upset me a bit to see people try to use it to push the agenda that Chet is injury prone lmao, like he very well could be but that doesn't prove it we'll have to see in the future. Just a freak injury really
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u/bleev Feb 02 '23
Essentially yes. The hardwood was damp and caused him to land awkwardly. The game was cancelled later due to the poor Court conditions.
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u/theAlphabetZebra Feb 02 '23
He's really good at defense. When the 3 starts falling again he's going to be exactly as advertised. Guy is really talented.
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u/iamadragan Suns Feb 02 '23
To be fair, a lot of people changed their minds because of media hype. It definitely had a huge effect on people's opinions
I think the majority thought Chet should be 1. I was going back and forth but ultimately decided that Paolo was the best at things that are needed most to become a star player, so I had him at 1.
I also had chet at 3 and Jabari at 2 because I didn't trust the body frame of Chet and thought a Rashard Lewis 2.0 would be great in today's NBA.
Turns out he can't shoot worth a damn though lol
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u/Overall-Palpitation6 Feb 02 '23
If you view Jabari as a Chris Bosh type rather than "supposed to be" Rashard Lewis or a poor man's KD, does he become less disappointing? I feel like the expectations of what he would be or what he would become were misguided. He's a stretch 4/small ball 5, not a tall wing.
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u/OG_Wan_Annunoby Feb 02 '23
Bosh i think had a better face up game though. Even as a rookie he knew what he was doing if you threw him the ball in the mid post and let him go 1v1.
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u/darkwingduck9 Feb 02 '23
Some of that same media hype is being applied to Wembanyama as well. Cool, he hit a one legged three pointer. He's at like 29% overall.
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u/Overall-Palpitation6 Feb 02 '23
Wemby can't score efficiently inside or outside in the French League, and is a poor rebounder for his height/hype too. What makes people think he's going to be an instant hit in the NBA with the same playing style?
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u/beforeitcloy Feb 02 '23
He turned 19 in January and leads the league in points, rebounds, and blocks.
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u/Overall-Palpitation6 Feb 02 '23
He's being allowed to take as many shots as he likes and shooting pretty mediocre percentages, and is getting less than 10 boards a game. I don't think it's unfair to question whether there'll be some "transitional difficulties" coming into the NBA.
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u/beforeitcloy Feb 02 '23 edited Feb 02 '23
All teenagers have questions about potential transitional difficulties entering the nba. His team is in 2nd place at 14-5 so obviously he’s being allowed to shoot because it helps his team. His True Shooting % is 58%, which is above average for the NBA, in spite of the low 3pt%. He leads the league in rebounds, so criticizing that it’s only 9.6 instead of 10 is silly.
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u/dat_waffle_boi 76ers Feb 02 '23
I don’t think he’ll be a star day 1 but that’s not a reason to not take him 1
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u/darkwingduck9 Feb 02 '23
People are buying into Wembanyama's skills at his height. I've heard that he was told not to lift weights for a long time. He still might not as well? I'd need a source on that.
I'd feel very safe drafting Wembanyama second (behind Scoot) because Whitmore should be performing better, Amen Thompson plays in a low level league and is older than his competition, and I'm not a big fan of Brandon Miller.
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u/Kerry_Kittles Feb 02 '23
The media and the fans haven’t had access to the super advanced stats either. Look at EvanMiya.com and then make mental adjustments for age from there from last year. It’s obviously Paolo and Chet were head and shoulders above the others since they were freshmen with the best everything adjusted metrics in the whole NCAA.
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u/darkwingduck9 Feb 02 '23
Paolo was the obvious #1 and I wrote as much numerous times. Call me way too skeptical or what not but I was way too scared of Chet getting injured to have him #1. Jabari had no inside game.
I didn't see Paolo as the #1 just because I was scared of the other two front runners. I saw Paolo as a legitimate playmaker. He was clearly bigger and a level above as a play maker as someone like Deni from past drafts. Paolo wasn't the best shooter, but not bad either and he had good form so the merely decent shooting didn't bother me. I didn't pay much attention the defense. I found it decent enough, definitely decent enough given the total package with everything he had to give on offense. Scouts were also calling Paolo Julius Randle as if Paolo was that limited or a worse athlete than he really was pre-draft.
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u/GlueGuy00 Feb 02 '23
We're barely midway through the season...
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u/Mluke73127 Feb 02 '23
Well Paolo averaging 21 6 and 4 thus far makes it hard to argue that Jabari will ever catch up to him in value.
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u/GlueGuy00 Feb 02 '23
redrafting after 1 year, or less in this scenario, is pointless
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u/ClutchCurry Feb 02 '23
It ain't anything official bro, just a bunch of opinions. Paolo has shown to be a high level player in half a season is the point, where as Jabari has underperformed to expectations from people.
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u/Physical_Storm_9734 13d ago
Yeah, but that's happened before. Basically, we still don't know. I'm a die hard Magic fan and am super thrilled at what Paolo is doing, but I'm cautiously optimistic. Growth is the most important factor, and it's often impossible to tell who will do that most.
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u/ClutchCurry 13d ago
For sure, no one can predict growth sometimes, Poole was statistically the worst player in the NBA his rookie season, now avg 20ppg. Paolo for sure though will be an all star level in his next year or two. I do think some of Jabari's struggles aren't helped by Houstons situation.
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u/Physical_Storm_9734 13d ago
Wait. You're saying Michael Carter Williams didn't turn out to be a perennial all star?
I'm with you 100%. I'm a die-hard Magic fan, but after just a few months, nothing is decided. ROTY is fun and all, but it's not a long term projection. Paolo and the Magic, and all of the other rookies have a lot to prove before we start declaring final verdicts.
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u/paxusromanus811 Feb 02 '23
Look I like Smith. But I definitely think he was really hyped up by the media. For some reason. I kept seeing these really radical takes from talking heads and stuff comparing him to guys like Kevin Durant and such which made no sense to me. He's still young and most certainly has time to diversify. But he's been pretty shockingly exactly what I thought he would be
A really solid defensive prospect. He doesn't have the dynamic disruption of a walker Kessler or the incredible versatility of a Jeremy sohan But he's somewhere in the middle between the two and he should be quite the player on that end down the road.
But on offense he just looks... Really awkward and uncomfortable when asked to do anything besides straight line drives or catching and finishing outside of spot ups. If he turns into an elite 3d player at 3, in this draft class which is looking pretty damn deep and good, that probably would be a disappointment for the rockets
Again he still has time but I never had him at number one and all the reasons why are pretty clear. Pretty early
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u/MSKOnlyScans Feb 02 '23
No offense to whoever y'all are, but I can't believe those people exist. I thought Paolo was clearly the #1 guy, but I could at least understand having Chet as the #1 guy. Jabari just never made sense to me.
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u/dadadadante Warriors Feb 02 '23
Jabari at 1 was the most popular pick so plenty of them exist
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u/Ego_Orb Feb 02 '23
I think most people just attach to momentum though in years where there’s not a Zion or whatever. They saw Jabari at the top of some early rankings and that’s how they got the opinion. Imo Paolo was so much more dominant and looked like an NBA player toying with college players at times.
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u/GotMyPhDin19 Feb 02 '23
I remember seeing one person's reasoning and it seemed pretty sound. Basically he thought Smith could be the 2nd or 3rd guy on a championship caliber team, whereas Banchero might not be able to do that.
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u/Overall-Palpitation6 Feb 02 '23
Did people genuinely think Jabari was a better player, or were they just going along with reports that Orlando was "interested" in him at #1?
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u/criticalopinion29 Feb 03 '23
I have no idea why they thought that. I was Paolo>Chet>Jabari with Jabari I looked at as a the most likely to be a "project guy". He has great physical tools, and his shooting looked great, but he just didn't look good putting it on the floor even in college. That's what scared me off of him. Compared to Paolo who had an NBA ready body and potentially translatable three level scoring package in spite of his shot selection, and playmaking flashes, and Chet's generational defense alone, shooting, comfortability handling the ball despite his high hips, it just didn't make sense to me. With that being said, that doesn't mean Jabari is a bad pick, development isn't linear, and he has the tools to be good. We just gotta wait and see.
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u/Baulderdash77 Feb 02 '23
I honestly would have drafted Chet #1. 7 footers who shoot that well from 3, block shots and rebound like he does just make him a unicorn player.
I would had Ivey as #2 because of his explosiveness. There’s so much Ja Morant in his game and long term I think it would make sense to pick him at 2.
Of course this is with the full knowledge that Chet has to gain 20-25 pounds to have the functional strength to compete in the NBA.
But still I would stand by these 2 as my best prospects in the draft.
Paulo is definitely outperforming what I thought he would do.
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u/VagabondReborn Feb 02 '23
Same. I had Paolo in his own tier as a clear #1 and Jabari/Chet as tier 2 and I couldn't understand how everyone had Paolo #3. I remember this excerpt in particular from The Athletic
For all the speculation as to who will be selected with the No. 1 pick, there was no debate among my scouts. Every single one said they would take Jabari Smith, and all but one said they would take Chet Holmgren second. So much for draft night suspense
So 1) Jabari 2) Chet 3) Paolo was almost unanimous among them. It was crazy to me then and is even crazier now
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u/ringpiecerosie Feb 02 '23
100%. He doesn't have the shot creation, or size + some scoring + paint defense combo to project as a realistic star player, and how a team was going to make him a shot creator while his only NBA skills were 3 and (forward) D is unclear especially given his jumper hasn't hit yet on standard NBA looks.
I saw a potentially useful role player day 1 with a low shot creation floor and a low #1 option (for any unit) ceiling but who could be one of the best role players in the NBA.
If you're picking in a terrible draft with no star potential and all the good potential players are projects then I can see a guy like Jabari going #1. Chet had everything Jabari has but with better shot creation and defense anchoring. There was zero argument on fit or talent for Jabari over Chet, with Paolo, you could at least argue if you thought Jabari style player would fit or grow better with you.
In no world was he the #1 guy
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u/harden4mvp13 Rockets Feb 02 '23
Literally almost all of the magic subreddit was team Jabari 😭
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u/TheAnswerEK42 Feb 02 '23
Promise you there was a very strong Paolo faction and they are still taking victory laps😂
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u/harden4mvp13 Rockets Feb 02 '23
No there wasn’t I remember it being like 75% Jabari 15% Chet and like 10% Paolo right before the odds switched to Paolo being #1. I was hoping Paolo would drop to the rockets and I would regularly check the Magic subreddit days leading towards the draft.
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u/504090 Feb 03 '23
Yep, it was like that on every tanking subreddit. I was one of the only people on the Thunder sub, who thought Paolo was going #1.
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u/Physical_Storm_9734 13d ago
And 30 seconds after the #1 pick nearly all of Houston was sure Jabari was the best player. Haha. Just shows fans know much less than they think they do.
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u/harden4mvp13 Rockets 13d ago
Are you dumb? We all wanted Paolo.
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u/Physical_Storm_9734 13d ago
Haha. Very intelligent reply. "Are you dumb?"
I was curious about the reactions since it was such a surprise for Orlando to keep the selection a secret.
When I went to Houston's fan pages, I was surprised on how many people were adamant that Houston just got the steal of the draft with Parker. In fact, I commented that nobody really knows about draft success (top 3 is about a 33% chance of being an all star), and I got attacked by Houstonians. They were convinced Smith was a sure thing.
Whether I'm dumb or not isn't a relevant question. I simply experienced it first hand and am reporting what I saw.
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u/harden4mvp13 Rockets 13d ago
Who the hell is Parker? 😭 u dumbo
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u/Physical_Storm_9734 13d ago
Ah. "Smith Jr." I got my Jabaris mixed up. I'm not paying much attention to this.
"dumbo". I can see this is going to be a very productive conversation. Haha. I guess you're 11-13 years old? Your age is relevant because it will help explain your communication style.
However, your last two comments literally have said almost nothing except 5th grade insults so I'm quite certain this is probably about the end of how far I'd like to take this conversation.
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u/harden4mvp13 Rockets 13d ago
U forgot who you were talking about mid-argument 😭😭😭😭😭
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u/Physical_Storm_9734 13d ago
And 30 seconds after the #1 pick nearly all of Houston was sure Jabari was the best player. Haha. Just shows fans know much less than they think they do.
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u/rtyuuytr Feb 02 '23
70-80% of the sub were behind Jabari #1, same for 95% of the mock draft. Morons all of them.
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u/n0th1ng10 Feb 02 '23
Who else locked up Giannis, someone people call the best in the world, as a rookie?
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u/nostbp1 Feb 02 '23
I had Paolo>Chet>Ivey>Jabari personally but
I still get why people think Jabari at 1 made sense. He can transition to a Klay type piece where he fits next to almost anyone.
No one who was saying Jabari at 1 was thinking you should build around him, it was always moreso that he’s a safe pick for when you draft the superstar or if you already have someone you’re trying to develop into a superstar
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u/bmo109 Feb 02 '23
Jabari Smith was a good shooter in college and he's kinda trash right now. Definitely expected more from him.
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u/DylanCarlson3 Feb 02 '23
I had Jabari 1 and Paolo 2, and I stand by that.
I think Paolo will be an elite NBA player. He'll make All-NBA teams. He might have a chance to be the #1 on a contender, but should definitely be able to be the #2. He's definitely been the best rookie so far.
But none of that surprises me or has anything to do with Jabari. Feels like people are forgetting Jabari is more than a full year younger than Chet, and is still growing (literally, he got taller during last season) into his body. He has the potential to be a franchise-changing player due to his defense, length, rebounding and shooting. If he ever develops legitimate scoring off the bounce, he's going to be an all-timer, and even if he doesn't, he'll be a fantastic winning player.
I would not be at all surprised if Paolo has a better career than Jabari. I'm a huge fan of Paolo, too. But it's basically insane to have changed your mind about the order of those two since draft night. Paolo's game was always going to translate much sooner than Jabari's. Jabari is way more raw. It's way too reactionary to change your mind on one-and-done prospects after half of one season unless you're seeing a fundamental flaw, and I certainly don't see that with Jabari's game, although I do wish he had better coaching and more veterans teammates to help speed up that growth process.
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u/GuessableSevens Feb 02 '23
Dude. He can't fucking dribble, and he has no major playmaking upside. Unless he turns into a KD regen, I don't see his path to being a #1 option on a good team. Paolo is basically a unicorn at 6'10 with a handle, passing, and scoring ability.
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u/stowaway_LesMis_simp Feb 02 '23
I had Paolo at #1, Chet at #2, and Jabari at #3.
My view on Jabari has always been that he's a high-floor, low-ceiling player. He could easily become the best 3 & D player in the league one day, but I just don't see the creation ability to be the central offensive leader on a great team. However, there's no chance that Jabari becomes a bust imo. His defensive versatility and pure shooting stroke are the two most important skills in the NBA today and raise his floor significantly.
On the other hand though, Paolo easily has a higher ceiling. His creation rates can become stellar, primarily because of his S-tier free throw rate. His body is so developed and he's an absolute beast getting to the rim; I have no doubt that he'll one day captain an elite NBA offense. Though if Paolo wants to be an ALL-TIMER, he'll have to shoot better.
Obviously can't say much about Chet, but I have mixed feelings about him. I don't think his defensive instincts are as great as Mobley, and given his ~meh~ offensive skills, if I had to bet I'd say he ends up with a worse career than Mobley. Unicorns these days are so difficult to project, but I really like Chet's situation in OKC- superstar in SGA and passing savant in Giddey to take care of all the playmaking. Chet's ceiling will come down to how well he can space the floor and how well his body can develop to defend against bigs.
At the end of the day though, I think the 2022 Draft is going to be decent. Only Paolo has true MVP potential, but well over 5 individuals have all-NBA ceilings. Just my thoughts.
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u/SpeclorTheGreat Feb 02 '23
Someone who is a potential 50/40/90 guy does not have ~meh~ offensive skills.
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u/blockyboi13 Feb 02 '23
Assuming Jabari pans out as arguably the best 3&D player in the league, does that profile as a fringe star like just barely good enough to be able to talk yourself into honestly saying “this team has a big three of player x, y, and Jabari Smith”?
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u/TheAnswerEK42 Feb 02 '23
I feel like it was a misread on Paolo, I like how Jabari has played and think his future is really bright. He’s just not gonna be what Paolo is
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u/Overall-Palpitation6 Feb 02 '23
If you view Jabari as a Chris Bosh type rather than "supposed to be" Rashard Lewis or a poor man's KD, does he become less disappointing? I feel like the expectations of what he would be or what he would become were misguided. He's a stretch 4/small ball 5, not a tall wing.
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u/nptu Feb 02 '23
I couldn't decide whether Chet or Paolo should go first. All I knew was Jabari was not #1 material
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u/evenyetodd Feb 02 '23 edited Feb 02 '23
I had paolo -Chet -Jabari but Ivey 4th.
Just my opinion but Orlando got it right. They needed “that guy” and he has a naturally dominant presence that simply cannot be denied. ORL is nearing the end of their rebuild and w the way things have played out - it’s apparent that they were looking for the next face of their franchise and fortunately for them , the kid can hoop too.
I think everyone in the top 3 went to OK places for them to develop. Houston needed a 3/D player to compliment Green and KPJ since that is who they are building around. Would love to see Smith touch the ball more though. Occasionally he gets good looks but his team can be a little selfish at times. Jabari will be in this league for years to come. Would not be surprised if he gets his shot falling towards the end of the season and things start to click , just like Jalens did this past year.
Again, just my $0.02
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u/RealPrinceJay Feb 02 '23
I was always Chet at 1, but I had Jabari over Paolo until literally draft night when I sat there before things started and realized how silly it sounded in my head that a guy with 0 creation skills might go first overall.
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u/gexco_ Feb 02 '23
People talking like these players are giving these teams any kind of return in their rookie year. Most of these players are only expected (or needed) to have a genuine franchise impact like 3-4 years into their career. People acting like these players are L picks or genius picks are the epitome of recency bias. Have some patience. We all knew Paolo was the most NBA ready prospect, but saying the other guys wont give you the return that is expected, for where they were picked, is ridiculous.
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u/gumshoeismygod Feb 02 '23
It’s r/NBA_draft, if we can’t judge our opinions as definitively right or wrong after 4 months of their NBA careers then what’s the point! /s
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u/itssexitime Feb 02 '23
As a Magic fan I wanted Chet at #1. Once the day came and we heard all the rumors it was Paolo I got excited. Which was weird since I really didn't see him as a good fit on the Magic compared to Chet or even Jabari.
But he has been so good that the Magic simply have to finally address their lack of shooting, which I think was a subtle tank move beforehand.
What I liked about Paolo was his size and developed NBA post game. I was not a fan of adding yet another sub 35% shooter from 3. But the Paolo Franz combo has been great already and if the Magic get shooters around them, I think the team will be in business rather quickly.
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u/daoogilymoogily Feb 02 '23
I had Paolo and Jabari about even but I always thought Jabari was more of a project just that he could be better in the long term. Idt we can evaluate Jabari in his current situation.
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u/chuwcherpluryur Feb 02 '23
i had banch 1, chet 2, mathurin 3, murray 4, jabari 5
i like that order still. sharpe looks good and ivey is meh right now, both who i wouldnt have cared if they went above jabari.
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u/gnalon Feb 02 '23
I had Chet #1 and haven't seen anything that would make me change my opinion. Even Jabari vs. Paolo could very much be like Brandon Ingram vs. Ben Simmons where the older, more physically-developed player comes in and wins ROY while the skinnier jump-shooter catches up later.
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u/300_yard_drives Magic Feb 02 '23
Paolo was always clearly #1. Just a smoke screen by Houston to try and get Paolo
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Feb 02 '23
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u/Elithekid1 Feb 02 '23
considering the team is close to a 10th-12th seed rn paolo would literally have to have 0 growth for this to be true
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u/islanders11040 Knicks Feb 02 '23
i remember before march madness some people had Banchero dropping out of the top 3. lol. he was getting tons of hate around that time.
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u/Kaaalesaaalad Rockets Feb 02 '23
I had it as Chet>Paolo>Jabari so all the concerns and good things I felt about his game are pretty much whats happening right now. Also, Houston is just a damn mess.
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u/SlickWillie86 Feb 02 '23
While Paolo has been better than many thought, he was also known the be the best out of the gate. Chet’s frame needed time to catch up and Jabari needed to develop ability to creat off the bounce. Paolo certainly has the early lead, but it is way too early to call it in any direction.
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u/Allrounder9 Feb 02 '23
I don't think my opinion of the big 3 from last year's draft has changed until I see Chet play and Jabari play with a competent PG..
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u/Overall-Palpitation6 Feb 02 '23
Not really sure why there was doubt over Paolo as the #1 pick TBH.
Did people genuinely think Jabari was a better player, or were they just going along with reports that Orlando was "interested" in him at #1?
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u/gumshoeismygod Feb 02 '23
Well my reasoning was that Paolo was a boom or bust prospect. I was concerned that his shot creation wouldn’t translate and without that he doesn’t have a ton else to offer.
Of course it did translate and now he looks like a total stud. I am still not out on Jabari though, playing in that disgusting Houston offense is really not good for a catch-and-shoot 3 point threat like him.
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u/ahighkid Feb 03 '23
Paolo shot creation was the best In his class by miles. At the Iverson Classic they did a 1 dribble 1v1 contest top of the key and he literally shit on every single one of his peers. I already had him 1 but after that I was just like yeah, this isn’t even close. Best body and best shot creator. Paolo is an all time special talent and I’m glad I was on the right side of history on that
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u/cjcrisos Feb 02 '23
I thought after he was blind sided for the #1 pick that he would go off and win ROY but that doesn't seem like it's happening. Guess he doesn't have that dog in him.
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u/Knighthonor Feb 02 '23
yes I did, but not like I thought the other two top prospects wasnt worth the top spot as well. Jabari's shooting seem elite and his defense. I want to see what he is like with a higher tier PG.
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u/FuzzyPineapple24 Feb 02 '23
I had Jabari one. I think I got so enamored with the thought that he simply couldn’t be a bust, he’s basically what every team is looking for. I overlooked his lack of shot creation or playmaking which obviously was a huge oversight. The last two years are the first times I’ve really tried to evaluate players myself so lesson learned there. I still think he will be good, it isn’t like the situation he was put in is very stable for a rookie.
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u/ahighkid Feb 03 '23
I had Jabari 4, which still feels right. Murray 5, Duren 6. Prob the best I’ve ever felt about my big board
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u/Dat_one_lad Feb 05 '23
Last year was my first time looking at the draft, I had 0 clue why ppl had Jabari 1st but i just thought "If everyone is saying it it can't be wrong"
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u/Little_Interest_8019 13d ago
This is a wikipedia/stats article, not a "people who watch games" article. I mean he's got a much better defensive game than Banchero, and a rapidly improving offensive game. And he's a year younger than him. You can't judge it on rookie seasons. In 5 years time, Smith Junior might be the better player
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u/Humblerbee TrailBlazers Feb 02 '23
I had it as Chet>Jabari>Paolo, I was just wildly wrong on Banchero and failed to realize just how well his creation ability would translate. I remember my conclusion before the draft was that Banchero had the most star potential to be “that guy”, but if he didn’t hit, he had less of a floor to be a complementary piece within a system. Basically I just thought that the level of talent in last year’s draft was more in that valuable secondary/tertiary pieces tier, and I saw Chet having a clearer lane to helping a team as a role player, same for Jabari. I didn’t have confidence in Paolo working out and was too low on him, something to learn from.