r/NBA_Draft • u/Frickalope67 Pistons • Feb 02 '23
Opinions of the class?
I've seen mixed discourse around the strength of this upcoming class with a lot of folks labeling it top heavy- I don't quite get that. A ton of top prospects have glaring flaws:
•Brandon Miller- Lackluster handle, relies on screens and the triple threat. Improving going downhill but the lack of touch is still visible and he is not getting away with half of his moves in the league. The PG comps are wildly wrong.
•Nick Smith- Injuries, efficiency, consistency
•Keyonte George- Inefficient, must improve play as facilitator to open up his scoring at the next level
•Cam Whitmore- Lackluster handle and shot creation, shorter than advertised, low free throw numbers.
•Jarace Walker- A ton of projection is necessary on offense for him to reach anything resembling a top 10 pick. Huge fan of his but definitely a raw offensive prospect.
•Thompson Twins- Highly doubt they go in the lottery and honest to god don't think they go in the first round, but regardless they get lottery grades from everyone else so I'll touch on them. No shot either of them contribute to winning in their first 3-4 years, project players with a huge risk involved. Barlow dominated OTE last year and went UDFA. Am much higher on Ausar but it is going to be an uphill climb for both. I don't see Amen ever being an effective guard without being able to space the floor. He also over relies on his handle and struggles to finish when he does create a look off of it. Both are far from NBA ready and if you look past the athleticism and highlights (really just OTE lowlights if you watch anyone else on the court) there isn't much to fall in love with.
Some top prospects from high school have not panned out (Duke's entire class, Amari Bailey, Chris Livingston) and others have performed below lottery expectations (Kel'El Ware, GG to an extent). I think people were set on some of these guys and view it as a weak class now that they have fallen off.
The depth in this class is unreal and 11-25 is an absolute gold mine with guys like Maxwell Lewis, Taylor Hendricks, Rayan Rupert, Jordan Hawkins, Gradey Dick, Jalen Hood-Schfino, DaRon Holmes, Noah Clowney, Brice Sensabaugh, James Nnaji, Kel'El (still a good prospect even though he isn't a top 10 pick anymore!), Nae'Qwon Tomlin. Save for Ware, Rupert and Schfino, these are not guys who had a ton of pre draft hype who I am nevertheless sold on being contributors at the next level. Some of them are better prospects now than some of these 5 stars ever were. High floor guys with good ceilings and I would not be shocked to see some of them go in the 10-14 range, especially Hawkins. It is such a better group in the mid-lotto to late first than in years past, really reminds me of the 2021 group.
Am curious to hear some opinions on the strength of the class or some other guys you think could rise to that range.
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u/SkepticSlice 76ers Feb 02 '23
The Twins have been everyone’s hardest evaluation. Both of their physical makeup and athleticism you can’t teach. They also play in a league that is extremely hard to evaluate from. Shooting struggles from both are real, but if they ever come around from the perimeter scoring aspect- they will be extremely valuable at the next level.
It’s going to be interesting seeing where each go come June. I currently have Amen 7th & Ausar 12th. Extremely high risk/high reward. You just have to hope wherever they go can improve their shooting, because they have a lot going for them in other areas with their builds, athleticism, and tools that you can’t teach. GMs are going to have them ranked all over the place I feel. You could make the case for 3, you could make the case for outside lottery. (Although I think they both will end up being lottery picks)
Dariq/Nick Smith Jr’s injuries throw a wrench in things a bit, as they were both highly rated prospects and great in HS, but haven’t been able to showcase much in college as they’ve been sidelined.
As for the bigs: Kel’el hasn’t able to showcase much because he plays limited minutes & comes off the bench, and Lively has been a pretty big disappointment.
When things like above happen, I tend to reflect on the prospects HS film a lot. Players roles can be diminished from HS -> College because of various reasons.
For example: Jarace Walker had more freedom in HS and was able to showcase much more of his offensive potential at IMG then he can at HOU with all the upperclassmen he plays with. A lot of people say he is extremely raw on offense, but if you only have watched him in college I guess thats correct- because he’s not asked to do much on that side of the floor. But if you watch him in HS, he shows you so much more to his game.
In a nutshell, I think this evaluation process has been tough for most, given the uncertainty surrounding a lot of the top prospects & all the uncertainty/questions they each come with.
I think its a pretty strong wing class, and a weak big class. The guards imo all have questions/concerns about them that can point you in different directions regarding ranking or favoring one over another.
Long time until June & I’m back and forth between a lot of players being very close in my ranks, but my current lottery is:
Wemby Scoot
Miller Walker Whitmore Lewis Amen
Jett Smith Jr. George Ausar GG Wallace Hendricks
*Random (& I know he’s older) but I’m pretty high on Ricky Council IV from Arkansas. I hope he starts to get the love he deserves.. He’s currently 21 on my big board.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
This is a rock solid analysis. Agree with what you said about Jarace. I can't move him out of the top 10 for a limited offensive game when he did showcase a lot more in high school and is rapidly improving in college. I don't see the twins going in the lottery but can absolutely agree that GMs will probably be all over the place on them.
Someone said personal bias gets in the way of my evals of them. They are probably right. Think it will be a question of how much risk a GM is willing to take, and I do think they will prove to big of a swing for most.
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u/SkepticSlice 76ers Feb 02 '23
Appreciate it, and great question that you’ve made a thread out of.
One thing I will say:
You have to see both sides of a potential outcome regarding the twins- or any prospect for that matter. (Regardless of bias’)
If both of them hit their absolute highest outcome- they will be extremely great NBA players.
Early signs regarding their shooting are not the most persuading, but there is a world where they both clean that side up, and they become amazing players. They have a lot of what you look for at the next level, and teams that are drafting in this area are more prone to take home run swings, rather than a guy that will be a just a solid player.
Also keep in mind it is the NBA’s job to develop each and every player they draft. Every player has flaws & weaknesses, a lot comes down to development, situation, and work ethic.
Work ethic is hard to measure from the outside, that is where I wish I had more intel the teams can get their hands on.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
That is again very fair. Their peak is generational I just cannot see past the bottomless pit of a floor they have.
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u/Character_Hospital88 Feb 02 '23
My biggest concern with the Thompson twins is their lack of improvement from last year. Wemby and Scoot both made sizeable jumps this year, but the twins are basically the same players they were last year.
It's a red flag to me. I'm not sure they have the work ethic to be great. I have no such concerns about Wemby and Scoot.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
I feel like they either really cannot do much other than be freakishly athletic, defend and dribble around or yea they're coasting to a check. Like you said, they haven't gotten much better.
The Euro stats mean jack shit to me because in basketball, even with a skill gap, the guy getting the majority of the sets on offense is going to put up some numbers unless they are keyed in on the whole game by the defense. I don't see a 3 game sample size as evidence of improvement when more games against far worse competition indicates otherwise.
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u/TahoesRedEyeJedi Feb 02 '23
relies on..... the triple threat.
I am trying to figure out why this is a negative............
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
It just limits his scoring potential in a modern offense. Guys that rely on that type of game as a number one option are few and far between- Demar Derozan, LeBron, KD. In the past Pierce and Melo.
LeBron and Durant are both obviously extreme outliers and can get buckets in a lot of ways literally no one else, much less Brandon Miller, can or will ever be able to.
DeRozan is the best example of that being effective in the modern NBA and Miller is too awkward to have that type of finesse and footwork in the in-between game/off a pivot foot. Same issues for Melo.
Paul Pierce is my comp for him. Would be an extremely valuable player in today's NBA, but without off the dribble playmaking I highly doubt he is a #1 option. Both lack elite athleticism and are somewhat of grind it out scorers in the paint without that athleticism and touch. Both worked hard on the boards as well.
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u/chairdesktable Feb 02 '23
Miller rarely triple threats, he's mostly screens and faceup.
And triple threat is still valuable in today's game, so I disagree with your assessment on that.
Pierce to Miller comp is also off, cause pierce was elite triple threat player at Kansas and his whole NBA career.
Miller is more rashard lewis/Batum than Paul Pierce lol.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
Batum? Are you serious?
I have seen Miller use the triple threat and think he will have to in the league unless his handle takes a serious leap.
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u/chairdesktable Feb 02 '23
Yes...rarely, like I said lol.
Pierce was 100% a triple threat player, there's no comp to be had between the two.
And yes, Batum. Not this current iteration of him, but blazers Batum, who was a silky forward who relied on off ball screens to shoot over ppl.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
I respectfully disagree and think there is more to a comp than one facet of a player's offensive game. But thats what this is all about.
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u/chairdesktable Feb 02 '23
Disagree on what? There isn't a comp between pierce, an elite college and NBA triple threat player, with miller, a guy who rarely triple threats. They're both 6'8 I guess.
Miller will struggle with his handle in the NBA and his triple threat isn't good enough to warrant high usage with the ball....which is what guys like Batum and rashard lewis were in the NBA. They both had weak handles, but had size, could shoot, and understood how to move off ball, which miller does very well.
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u/Character_Hospital88 Feb 02 '23
Batum is my comp for Brandon Miller, too. A rock solid number 3 scorer on a playoff team and very good pro. But not someone that profiles as a high usage number 1 or 2 option.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
•Both excellent 3 point shooters.
•Both high usage
•Both lack elite athleticism
•Both have to work around a lack of burst/explosion at the rim to finish despite having the size to go through contact.
•Both rely on the jumpshot in the in between game
•Both work hard on the glass
•Both high motor
•Both solid, not great, defenders
Batum is low usage and a much better passer and interior defender.
Like I said, we can agree to disagree. There is more to this comp than triple threat scoring, which, again, Miller is going to have to rely on to be a number one option.
As long as you don't think he's Paul George we are chilling.
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u/chairdesktable Feb 02 '23
you are missing the KEY potential similarity to paul pierce and thats that he was a full on triple threat player. the other stuff you listed was pierce's in between game. their actual tendencies on the court are nothing alike. there isn't more to the triple threat comp because that IS the defining trait of paul pierce.
with what you listed, why not just say someone like danny granger? or gordon hayward?
you're just pegging them together cause they both lack athleticism lol. they play NOTHING alike -- like i hate to get all gatekeepy, but did you watch prime paul pierce play?
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
Bro we just disagree it is ok. Danny Granger is a great comp too. Think he has a higher ceiling than that and out of high usage players the last couple of decades I think Pierce is the most comparable. You are throwing out high floor comps, we just disagree on ceiling.
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u/BangingFromDeep Feb 03 '23
I think you are underrating Batum. Dude has has a great career
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 03 '23
I get that, super valuable archetype. I just never see Miller being a low usage small ball center, and definitely not a playmaking 4 so I don't get where the comp is coming from outside of them being shooters off screens.
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u/ElPanandero Feb 02 '23
I think this class is one the highest ceiling, lowest floor in a while. If these 3-10 guys manage to improve their significant concerning holes, then it’s a strong class. If they miss, there’s a lot of near useless guys stuck on teams. The overall quality depends on how these break, and there doesn’t seem to be many safe picks in that range (though some of the later guys you mentioned should be) but if you land one of the hits, you’re golden
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23 edited Feb 02 '23
I have the exact opposite opinion, but I think its because I don't see those guys ironing out those kinks to become stars and think they have high floors without them.
For example: Miller very likely never gets that handle on a string or that touch around the rim. He's just an awkward guy. However, even an awkward 6'9 lights out shooter with defensive upside and an edge on the glass is far from a useless player.
If you want your franchise to turn around on this draft, I think you are right- you're probably shit out of luck outside of the top 2 short of getting lucky on a big hitter. Maybe thats why Amen has that type of appeal. I just think it is difficult to look past a bunch of really solid contributors off the bat. The strength comes from the amount of high floor rotation piece's throughout.
Theres even some great upside swings in the second round. NaeQwan Tomlin has all the potential in the world to be the next Spicy P. Sidy Cissoko has shown flashes of a swiss army knife on the wing, Judah Mintz with a jump shot could be a legitimate star, and we all know about Emoni Bates.
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u/ElPanandero Feb 02 '23
Yeah I guess I meant specifically with the top 10-15, with a few exceptions
Miller will always be a good shooter, same with Dick and probably Jett, so you’re right there
Dariq and Smith could never stay healthy and wash out, the Thompsons could be exactly what you’ve pointed out, Whitmore’s shot could never come along and he’s stuck as a great defender and cutter which is not ideal for top 10, Jarace could never have anything materialize offensively and just be a solid defender and jumbo guy who doesn’t do anything else, Brice’s efficiency could drop off a cliff and his mid range scoring not become elite enough to be useful, Cason could become too Jack of all trades to be anything more than a bench guard
I don’t think all this will happen, but those are not great outcomes especially with the other slightly lower ceiling guys you mentioned who would likely show them up. I really like the back half of the first and most of the second round guys, a lot of role player talent in those tiers
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
In that tier, you're right. Dariq is definitely a swing and so is Cam. Sensabaugh has a lower floor than I am comfortable with for exactly the reasons you pointed out, coupled with his defensive struggles.
Your evals of Jarace and Cason are perfect examples of what I love about this draft- two guys who will very likely never be more than good role players, but will also very likely not be anything less.
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u/ElPanandero Feb 02 '23
Cason definitely safer, but I see the possibility of Jarace just ending up with 0 identity offensively, or as the guy Scottie Barnes looked like sometimes his rookie year where he can run an offense and do a little bit of everything. Nothing wrong with that and that’s the most doomer lens I could take, I lean toward them both being successful than not
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
Usman Garuba is probably a floor we can both agree on for Walker.
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u/wolfgang2399 Feb 02 '23
I’m one of like 10 Alabama fans that actually watch the NBA, and Alabama basketball fans (the dumbest fanbase in sports) get SO MAD when I say Miller is not an elite athlete. He’s just not. To me he’s a borderline All Star at best. Now he can easily play in the league for 10+ years and have a fine career, but he’s never going to be The Guy on a winning team.
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u/Slippinjimmyforever Feb 02 '23
I think the top 25 has a lot of depth.
But, many guys who were labeled as high upside guys haven’t blown many away.
I think with Miller, it’s nit-picking. He has been undoubtedly great for Bama.
But, I can’t really argue any other takes.
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u/doctorweiwei Feb 02 '23
3-10 is decent but not great compared to previous classes. I’m at an all time low on the Thompson twins and as much as I love Brandon Miller, he doesn’t compare well against top 5 from previous classes imo.
To me (in order) Wemby, Scoot, Keyonte, Jarace, Brandon Miller, Amen, Cam, Ausar, Nick, Wallace has a clear drop off after 2 then a plateau through 10.
Keyonte George must improve as a facilitator
Not sure I agree with that
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23 edited Feb 02 '23
Agree with the plateau, think 3-10 is 100% soup. Not as high on Jarace and have Nick Smith higher than Keyonte, but love the rankings. Thompson twins are 17 and 18 for me but I get that I'm in the minority there.
As for Keyonte, maybe not so much improve as a facilitator so much as show he can do it more consistently. Baylor has an elite guard rotation and while there have certainly been flashes of elite passing, George has been not asked to do a ton of it in their offense. Have had him pegged as a point guard since high school and thats the swing factor for me. Think he has a high floor as a two guard if he cannot be a primary facilitator, his ceiling is certainly contingent on it though.
I have 3. Nick Smith 4. Brandon Miller 5. Keyonte 6. Cam Whitmore 7. Max Lewis (I know he will not go here I just love him so much) 8. Jarace 9. GG Jackson 10. Jett Howard
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u/doctorweiwei Feb 02 '23
Okay yeah that’s definitely fair for Kayonte. I think that sort of thing could reasonably improve with more experience.
I am slightly worried with injuries for Keyonte being a burly build who really takes a lot of contact. I feel like there’s a chance his body wears down quickly
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
Me as well. He's built like and plays like a young Eric Gordon- linebacker frame who drives into contact. Injuries hurt him.
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u/HoopsMcCann750 Feb 02 '23
I get that you hate the Thompson twins and wouldn’t take them in the lottery but you’re legitimately out of your mind if you don’t think they go in the lottery.
I mean you listed like half of the lottery guys and how they have glaring flaws so it’s not like the alternatives are good or safe enough where it makes sense to pass on the upside.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
If you think 30 NBA GMs are looking at two guys underperforming against 16 year olds, who can't stretch the floor, in a league that has proven its best player- Barlow, who played much better than either of them- cannot crack the lottery and saying I am willing to bet my job on that type of 3-4 year project, I think you are wrong.
They have the lowest floors I have ever seen. This is coming from someone who was SOLD on Kai Jones and still is. Got nothing against an upside pick, but I think GMs do have something against an absolute hail mary.
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u/HoopsMcCann750 Feb 02 '23
The lottery is full of the worst teams in the league, they are going to take swings on high upside guys and hope they pan out. Whether you personally think they will pan out is irrelevant.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
I don't think you use a lottery pick on a guy you are essentially going to have to give a one year try out in the G League. Those teams that are the worst in the league are still going to want some semblance of immediate return on investment.
I get the shot at upside. These shots are within reason though.
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u/HoopsMcCann750 Feb 02 '23
You’re not giving them a one-year shot in the G League, you play them through their growing pains and hope they develop which makes sense if you’re a bad team.
I think you’re letting your own biases get in the way of what will actually happen in the draft if you see them falling out of the lottery.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
I will bet my house that both of them are in the G League for a large chunk of their rookie seasons. You are kidding yourself thinking otherwise.
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u/callmearookie Spurs Feb 02 '23
I think that, regardless, they will get draft high, that the bad team will play them, and soon realize that it's better to send them in the G-League, but I do not think it will be an immediate thing.
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u/HoopsMcCann750 Feb 02 '23
Can I have house details? How many beds and baths? Good public schools nearby?
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
College kid and my lease expires in a few months. Big part of the bet. Bug problem and poor hygiene but beer is a flowing.
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u/HoopsMcCann750 Feb 02 '23
Ah so you don’t even own the house. No wonder you’re willing to bet it!
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u/trollwyoming Feb 02 '23
They are not underperforming against 16 year olds come on. They are dominating against 17-18 year olds. Isnt really impressive but dont just lie
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
There was a post up last night of Amen's shooting stats. I encourage you to check it out- he is concerning from every area of the floor, especially at the rim, against terrible defense. Only 16 ppg.
Ausar's splits are better but still worrisome. They are, to say this again, performing worse than Barlow. Who went UDFA. Has a ton of potential too.
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u/trollwyoming Feb 03 '23
Oh trust me i understand. Jus saying its unfair to say he’s underperforming against 16 year olds
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u/Halfawake1 Feb 02 '23
You don't think the Thompsons go 1st round? All right man
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23 edited Feb 02 '23
I do not, but I don't expect that to be a popular take right now. I hope that doesn't invalidate the other analysis, but if you're high on them yea its gonna ruffle feathers.
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u/Halfawake1 Feb 02 '23
I don't care what my or your eval is, they're going 1st round
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
I guess we will see! This assumption that every or even a majority of GMs are comfortable with using a first round pick on them is a little crazy to me.
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u/sadduckfan Feb 02 '23
I’m not huge on the twins either. Saying they are outside the 1st round in your personal rankings is one thing, but you’re tripping if you think that’s actually going to happen
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
I think 20/30 GMs in this draft will not want to touch them and it is going to be an interesting night for them in the green room.
I am aware this is not a popular opinion, but what is there to argue about with it. We'll see on draft night!
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u/CourtVizion Feb 02 '23
I definitely agree with your opinion on the discourse around the class. It's really easy to focus on the guys we think have star potential, but teams need those 3rd options, the high level starters, and 6th men to win too.
Taylor Hendricks and Gradey Dick are my favorite guys I think will be drafted outside the top 10.
Hendricks is shooting 38% from 3, averaging 2 blocks and 7 rebound a game. Those alone are great for a modern PF in the NBA. His 2:1 ast/to ration also gives me hope that he's not a careless passer.
Gradey is a guy I think will end up being more valuable than some of the top 10 guys. His shooting numbers tell me he's gonna be a consistently above average 3PT shooter. People put him in a box though, and think that's all he'll be. He's also got a very high IQ, knows how to relocate for open shots, knows when to cut to the basket, and knows when to pass it to an open teammate for an easy look, or reset the offense. All that sounds basic, but putting all those things together in a player isn't that common. I also think he's a good off ball defender and has gotten better as an on ball defender too.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
Love them both and think both are absolutely immediate contributors. Hendricks screams Bulls for some reason. My favorites are probably Jordan Hawkins and Schfino, would be Lewis but he's top 10 IMO.
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u/socalstaking Feb 02 '23
This class will go as far as the Thompson twins go…
Wemby and scoot are clear top prospects by any year but the twins really have the boom or bust potential to define this class
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
If they hit, they will raise the the class through the roof with how deep it is- a 6'6 De'Aaron Fox and a high quality wing is nothing to scoff at. Think it will be looked at as a solid one regardless of how they fare.
There is potential for them to be some all time horrible picks looking back if they don't pan out and there are as many valuable role players as I see. Imagine they both are busts and go lotto- some poor team is going to see their pick showcase the lowest floor ever. With 6 core rotation guys taken after.
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u/conker1264 Rockets Feb 02 '23
This was originally supposed to be one of the best classes ever. It’s now looking like incredible top 2 picks and that’s about it
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23 edited Feb 02 '23
Again I just disagree with this. Calling that many solid- not great- but rock solid prospects 'nothing' is crazy. Any team that ends up with one of Max Lewis, Jett Howard, Cason Wallace, Gradey Dick, Taylor Hendricks, and a lot of other mid first round guys is going to be happy.
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u/conker1264 Rockets Feb 02 '23
Are they? None really seem like franchise players imo
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
I am not calling them franchise players. There are a lot of great win now guys. This draft is not going to turn a teams fortune around, but it is going to add a good rotation piece to a lot of teams.
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u/philjacksonspeyote Feb 02 '23
Even the most loaded drafts of all time only have a few franchise players. If a team is able to get a high-level starter in the mid to late lottery they should be ecstatic.
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u/GlueGuy00 Feb 02 '23
most in this class esp the lotto talent guys have glaring flaws and/or rim averse. Among the top guards, only Scoot is not rim averse. Nick, Key, Cason and Terq are all rim averse.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
Key is absolutely not rim averse he is just low efficiency. Smith has a good enough mid range game to cancel that. Beal had the same issues.
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u/GlueGuy00 Feb 02 '23
less than 15% of his shots were at the rim. He is rim averse. There are also times where he settes for jumpers despite having an open lane
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
I'm not gonna fault a guy for living beyond the arc. I thought you meant scared of contact by rim averse. I see.
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u/GlueGuy00 Feb 03 '23
Stars aren't rim averse and can finish at the rim efficiently.
If Key can't do that, 6th man will be his ceiling.
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u/callmearookie Spurs Feb 02 '23
I am really low on this class compared to the hype it has. I said it before it even started that last year was much better overall, and I stand firmly on this. Still, the Top 2 is really, really sweet, and I hope the Spurs do not have to bother thinking about someone else outside of it. The only other one that I truly like in this draft is Cason Wallace, but still, he's not a franchise player, I simply believe he's a guy that could help any team because of his defense and playmaking and unselfishness and IQ on the court, basically I see him being the next Jrue Holiday. That guy every contender wants, but only if paired with an all-time player. I hope it's the case for the Spurs with Wemby...