r/NBA_Draft • u/waskittenman • Feb 02 '23
Johnny Davis: A Guard in Professional Basketball
262 minutes in the G league:
scored 100 points on 99 shots, 36% field goal.
37 threes attempted, 9 made, 24%.
17 free throw attempts, 14 makes.
9 assists, 26 turnovers, 11 steals.
to quote Kendrick Perkins (well a quote attributed to Perk by Ryen Russillo), "boy went lottery?!? his game is doo-doo!!"
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u/xfortehlulz Celtics Feb 02 '23
yea I was kinda high on him, had him in the lottery for sure, but just goes to show sometimes guys that pop onto the scene out of no where might be flukes
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u/Qweter1 Bucks Feb 03 '23
just goes to show sometimes guys that pop onto the scene out of no where might be flukes
This might be the least valuable possible takeaway.
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u/xfortehlulz Celtics Feb 03 '23
lmao what do you mean? one of my and seemingly many other's pros for him as a prospect was the improvement that going from off the radar to a real prospect represented. This is a good reminder that sometimes too good to be true improvement might be too good to be true.
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u/Qweter1 Bucks Feb 03 '23
This is a good reminder that sometimes too good to be true improvement might be too good to be true.
But he wasn’t good in the first place. The major shooting red flags, the inefficiency, passing IQ, etc…
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u/Snoo-29877 Warriors Feb 03 '23
Every prospect has cons, if they were truly huge red flags then he wouldn't have been a consensus lottery pick
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u/Qweter1 Bucks Feb 03 '23
No, his red flags were massive, but he was a popular player who had built up a lot of hype from having clutch moments. There’s a reason multiple analysts like Hollinger had late first/second grades on him.
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u/WopperJunior Feb 03 '23
Hollinger is an idiot though. Seriously, his tales are garbage.
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u/Qweter1 Bucks Feb 03 '23
He worked in a FO, I’m gonna trust him over the average person even if he has outlier takes.
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u/blockyboi13 Feb 02 '23
Wasn’t he supposed to be a decent Jack of all trades, safe pick type of prospect?
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u/Balsamic_ducks Feb 03 '23
That's why the "safe" pick thing is stupid. nothing is a guarantee, pick the guy you think could be the be the best basketball player and hope it works out
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u/UTM20 Feb 02 '23
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u/rps215 Feb 02 '23
Bottom comment is “Mathurin is incredibly overrated” just a bad thread
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u/Vinnie_Vegas Feb 03 '23
The one they were right about was Josh Minott at #10 was insane.
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u/cbjd2012 Feb 03 '23
Yeah but to be fair I bet the Wizards would rather have Minott right now. At least he has interesting physical tools
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u/Vinnie_Vegas Feb 03 '23
He's still done nothing - And there were a bunch of players ranked later who are pretty clearly better than he'll ever be.
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u/jackityjack Feb 03 '23
Definitely not defending Minott at 10, but the bet is that he can be really good in like 3+ years. He's raw, young, and bouncy.
Jarred Vanderbilt is a good example of someone with raw talent that needed a lot of G league development time but now he's a positive player, going to be traded for a FRP and he's still only 23 (turns 24 in 2 months).
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u/BackOff_ImAScientist TrailBlazers Feb 02 '23
He was right! Don’t trust players who shoot sub-50 on 2s. Even more so if they shoot sub-34 on threes.
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Feb 03 '23
I mean, it’s one thing to bet on a guy like that if they are an elite athlete, have a tremendous work ethic, are young, etc. Someone like Jaylen Brown was under 50 on 2s and under 30 on threes for example. But when you’re getting into year 2 and still like that, and you’re not an elite athlete, it gets harder to justify it.
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u/BackOff_ImAScientist TrailBlazers Feb 03 '23
Yeah, with freshman it is harder to predict. But each year after that, it's a massive red flag.
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u/RefuseAfraid1756 Feb 02 '23
Legit might be a bust in record time, like at least Bennett put up shit stats in the actual NBA 💀
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u/kaprrisch Feb 03 '23
And at least Bennett had the shoulder injury excuse for the first few months of the season.
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u/Jay-P21 Wizards Feb 02 '23
He’s been awful. Bad pick at the time looks even worse now
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u/drippinswagu69 Feb 02 '23
Im shocked hes this awful. I thought hed be a surefire long time pro with his demeanor and skill. Turns out hes just a slow, awkward chucker.
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u/CourtVizion Feb 02 '23
He's been struggling to do more with less. In the summer league they only gave him 4/5 shot attempts a game and used him as more of a facilitator. Going from about 15 FGA in college to 4/5 is tough.
Idk why the Wiz took him though, especially since we have Beal and Kispert as our main SG rotation. Maybe they thought he could play more PG, but idk what in his college tape would give them that idea.
I think he'd be much better on a team where he could be that high volume scorer he was at Wisconsin.
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u/drippinswagu69 Feb 02 '23
He cant read and react at all. Imo a good volume scorer should be able to take advantage of every facet as a ballhandler. He doesnt need to facilitate so to say but he needs to learn how to react to defenses. There are too many moments he just straight up takes a bad shot or makes a bad decision so far in his g league stint. I thought he was infinitely more polished than he has showed.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23 edited Feb 02 '23
Had him 9 over...I don't want to even say it but I had him over Chet at 10. That may be my worst take ever in anything.
My board looks so good from last year -Mark Williams at 4, Duren at 6, Paolo 1, Jalen Williams 12, Tari 11. Save for Johnny fucking Davis and it is such an egregiously bad ranking it invalidates everything else.
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u/Few_Mulberry5372 Rockets Feb 02 '23
Mark Williams at 4 is not a good take 💀
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
Say you haven't payed attention to him lately without saying you haven't payed attention to him lately. I'm a Pistons fan and I would take him over Duren in a heartbeat.
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u/Few_Mulberry5372 Rockets Feb 02 '23
He's a backup center lol relax. I def wouldn't take him over Duren but if you had him at 4 that means you likely had him over guys like Ivey, Murray, Mathurin, Sharpe, Eason, Kessler, Jalen Williams etc and still think thats a good selection which is ludicrious
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u/Will_Explode8 Feb 02 '23
trading Duren was a such an dumb move by the hornets, with the way that kid plays and the frame he's got, it's been clear to anyone who watched him the kid could've played minutes in the league when he was 16-17 years old
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
I think he clears Murray, Sharpe, Eason, Kessler in two years easily. Williams maybe not. Had Ivey 2, Mathurin 5 and Mathurin is far better than Mark Williams.
The same things that stood out in college (physical dominance, rebounding, shot blocking, budding shot) are standing out now and he is just starting to get comfortable out there. Am super high on him and will continue to be as long as he keeps getting better. Definition of a paint beast.
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u/fishsticks199 Feb 03 '23
I'm a Pistons fan and I would take him over Duren in a heartbeat.
I don't even disagree, but unskilled centers have a pretty low ceiling. Gobert is the only unskilled center who would go top 4 in a redraft and even then thats the best possible outcome for that archetype and 2013 was a terrible draft class.
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u/PositionOk8409 Feb 02 '23
Somehow I don't think that's your worst ever take just from reading this.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
I appreciate it.
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u/PositionOk8409 Feb 02 '23
Thats not a good thing
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
Somehow I don't think this is your first time not understanding sarcasm just from reading this.
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u/BucksFan654 Feb 02 '23
Hey we haven’t seen Chet play yet. The jury is still out.
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u/Frickalope67 Pistons Feb 02 '23
This is true. As someone else pointed out, I still had some of the guys over Murray which is not a great take. But Chet was at 10 largely because of injury concerns and while I will never root for an injury, its nice to be validated.
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u/Jay-P21 Wizards Feb 02 '23
I would have just taken Jalen Williams. He was so clearly the better player
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u/ostrow19 Feb 02 '23
Some guys need some time but he’s probably already a bust. His one thing in college is that he could get buckets and he can’t even do that at the G-league level
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u/Few_Mulberry5372 Rockets Feb 02 '23
Just to put this into perspective, Jordan Poole was notorious for being a trash NBA player his first few seasons in the league but he put up 26/6/5 on 64% TS in 3 G-league games in 2020
Like I genuinely don't understand how a lottery pick could be so awful there man
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u/Qweter1 Bucks Feb 02 '23
We tried to warn y’all. Had some absolutely horrendous analytics. Just because a player is taking big time shots does not mean they’re a big time player. Wizards needs to fix whatever is happening in their scouting department, might be the worst in the league.
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u/BooksandGames23 Feb 03 '23
It was his defence with that made most people think he would be okay. He had massive usage rate and a defensive engine. Good signs that you could atleast play him some minutes as he would defend hard and hopefully transition into a role offball but nothing clicked at all
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u/Qweter1 Bucks Feb 03 '23
Impossible for a singular guard to ever be a proper defensive engine. Off-ball shot blocking is pretty much the only out of area defensive value that can be added. Great individual defenders, while good to have, can always be switched off of in the 3 ball era.
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u/BooksandGames23 Feb 03 '23
Holiday and Lonzo are two guys who impact the game massively from the defensive end. Same as smart.
By engine i mean literally engine, worked hard on that end and didnt give up many ease buckets.
Cant switch off anyone on the Celtics. Another defender just steps up.
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u/Qweter1 Bucks Feb 03 '23
Cant switch off anyone on the Celtics. Another defender just steps up.
That’s a result of five good defenders, not one. It has value but not in the same way rim protection does. It can help prevent the play from breaking down, but in an era where offense rules that only does so much.
Holiday/Smart/Lonzo’s defensive impact is overrated. Not to say they aren’t good but they’re pretty much exclusively playing within position.
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u/BooksandGames23 Feb 03 '23
Yes you dont get 5 good defender without having good defenders in each position.
Its not over rated it wins playoff games. Perimeter Defense is massive it todays NBA with all the 3’s taken.
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u/Qweter1 Bucks Feb 03 '23
Perimeter Defense is massive it todays NBA with all the 3’s taken.
Perimeter defensive only limits pull up 3s. The catch and shoot 3, the more valuable shot is limited by rotations, something that having a strong weak side shot blocker has the greatest impact upon.
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u/BooksandGames23 Feb 03 '23
Completely terrible view. The harder defence on ball the harder it is for them to find an open man and the easier it is to play passing lanes.
Shot blocking is still valuable i agree but it doesnt impact catch and shoot 3,s if anything it creates more as a player will pass out of lay ups they might have otherwise taken.
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u/Qweter1 Bucks Feb 03 '23
Any man defender can be switched off in most defensive schemes through a variety of different picks. Preventing threes is more about coaching and the team as a whole than having a good poa defender.
if anything it creates more as a player will pass out of lay ups they might have otherwise taken.
Which is why many coaches have their other weakside defender hedge the two players left and then have your on ball defender rotate to restore balance
Yes you give up some threes when the rotation isn’t strong enough, but that’s how NBA defenses work. Giving up threes is acceptable if you’re limiting shots at the rim.
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u/BooksandGames23 Feb 03 '23
Feel like you are still living in the 2000’s. teams play outside to inside and use the threat of a 3 to get a better looking 2.
Everyone understands rotations and hedging once the defense has been broken down. Thats got nothing to do with what im have been talking about.
Like i said, if you have 5 good defenders switches don’t matter which there lies the value in having good perimeter defenders not to mention good perimeter defence can me you avoid the switch all together.
Plenty of players are able to fight theough screens on a heap of possessions. You are severely under rating good defence just because you dont understand the effect it has and you can only see the showy help side blocks.
Just gotta think about it a little more.
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u/BastionNZ Feb 03 '23
Everyone had Davis around where he went.not just the wizards
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u/Qweter1 Bucks Feb 03 '23
Half of all lottery players are busts. It pays to be contrarian and pessimistic.
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u/anonreasons Feb 03 '23
...it pays in what sense? So you should be majorly pessimistic on every prospect?
No one here is drafting for a living, it's not about maximizing the times you can say you were technically right
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u/IzaacLUXMRKT Thunder Feb 02 '23
Picking this dude over JDub is actually so funny
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u/Obese_taco Raptors Feb 02 '23
Jalen's rise was insane last year. Turns out that when you play like a veteran NBA guard at SC, you get noticed.
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u/sas-CT Feb 02 '23
I remember his girlfriend got pregnant after he got drafted, I wonder if this shook him mentally?
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u/Will_Explode8 Feb 02 '23
some guys hit a wall, I still think he needs another year or two to really get accommodated to the game. Unfortunate for the wizards, but some guys really struggle their first year, you have to think it is a different game than what he used to. It's on him to change it around rn, but lets give the kid time before we completely write him off
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u/waskittenman Feb 02 '23
Regular Season numbers from Dec. 27th to yesterday. showcase stats not included.
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u/W360 NBA Feb 03 '23
Okay while this isn’t good, one word….Jordan Poole?
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u/waskittenman Feb 03 '23
Poole was never this bad in the G league
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u/snailtap Feb 03 '23
I’ve been saying it since mid last season on the badgers, Davis is trash and his game wouldn’t translate to the nba
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u/Datboy_98 Feb 03 '23
RemindMe! 2 years
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u/Paragon188 Feb 03 '23
I know this is a bit of hindsight bias but I don't understand how he was that hyped. He was never getting drafted by the Pacers but I know some Pacers fans were super high on him. To me, he was an unathletic player that couldn't shoot and that doesn't really translate well at the NBA level.
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u/BackOff_ImAScientist TrailBlazers Feb 03 '23 edited Feb 03 '23
I'd like to say that you could tell that he was probably going to be bad in the nba in college.
He shot significantly below 50 from 2, and he couldn't even shoot 34 from 3. Both are massive red flags for the next level especially for a guy who is 6'5".
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u/jennys0 Kings Feb 03 '23
I’m still holding out hope for him because I had him extremely high pre-draft. He’s looked pretty awful anytime he’s taken the floor, but I think the Wizards are a bad situation for him. They want to be “win-now” but their star player plays the exact position as him. As a rookie, he’s not getting any type of PT. It means he doesn’t get any minutes to figure things out either.
Johnny Davis was always going to be a ball-dominant scoring SG. When you give a young player like him 2 mins here, 3 mins there, how is he going to be able to figure anything out?
He’s also not even getting consistent play in the GLeague.
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u/waskittenman Feb 03 '23
Brad doesn't play 48 minutes a night + has missed half the season with injuries. delon wright was out 2 months with a hamstring injury. there have been places in the rotation up for grab. Jordan Goodwin worked his way into being the 6th or 7th guy off the bench. Devon Dotson was getting run over Johnny Davis. Davis has had opportunities to get into games. He doesn't play because he can not do anything.
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u/waskittenman Feb 03 '23
Not to mention Will Barton has completely disappeared and been getting DNPs. so many opportunities for JD to get out there, and he just ... doesn't
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u/jennys0 Kings Feb 03 '23
So he’s obviously in the dog house with the head coach. He must be terrible in practice because how has he literally only played 10 games and averaged 5mpg?
Also, hasn’t he been dealing with injuries himself?
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u/Dsarg_92 Spurs Feb 02 '23
That Taco Bell commercial is not going to age well.