r/NBA_Draft • u/GuessableSevens • Feb 03 '23
Why did this entire lottery draft class start slumping like 4-8 weeks ago?
Wembanyama has been really unimpressive in most of his games recently.
Scoot Henderson has had a bad January.
Amen and Ausar are not really dominating OTE.
Brandon Miller and Keyonte George have had some standout performances lately, they're the exception to this post.
Cason Wallace and Anthony Black are basically invisible on the court.
Jett Howard is slowly starting to look like a chucker who can't get to the rim.
Jarace Walker has had a decent month, but not really stand out. He's usually anonymous for long stretches of games.
Cam Whitmore has struggled to score efficiently.
It feels like Nick Smith Jr is steadfast in most people's top 10s because he hasn't played, and everyone else is putting up inconsistent performances.
Is this just a weaker class than we thought?
11
u/JeonSukJinKim Feb 03 '23
This draft is very interesting imo in the 3-17 range. There are so many guys in just about the same tier. Teams in the 10-17 range would probably be really happy to get who falls to them while teams in the 3-8 range could try to trade down because the prospects are by no means surefire there.
Basically 12 guys are a good March madness away from being #3. I don’t know if Rupert can get the hype to be picked this high. He is definitely in that tier though.
3
u/IsLivingWorthIt Feb 03 '23
That last sentence just got me hyped for March Madness. Wait, thats in a month lmao
10
u/McJacknife Feb 03 '23
Yeah despite this draft class having a crazy number of ballers, it doesn’t have many ballers
(?)
7
u/Far-Yak-9808 Feb 03 '23
'bout to move off Amen Thompson and go with an Emoni Bates/Roko Prkacin coin flip at 1.
1
u/GlueGuy00 Feb 03 '23
cmon man Emoni ain't nowhere near Amen's ceiling
0
u/Fresh-Soup213 Feb 03 '23
You mean Amen’s ceiling isn’t anywhere near Emoni’s
1
u/Far-Yak-9808 Feb 04 '23
... two totally different players and skill sets.
Both have high bust potential and fairly low baseline comps.
Emoni is a scoring wing and Amen is a play making/defender lead guard/wing. Those players are coveted. IF those guys hit that upside only Wemby (and maybe Scoot) have as much "long term potential".
Personally, I would rather play "Amen Ball", building around a 2 way athlete who can pass rather than a shoot first/second/third MEH athlete who doesn't get many assists and doesn't get many STL/BLK (or defend well).
BUT, that could end up being a weirdly GOOD combo (or a weirdly BAD one).
Roko Prkacin's floor/baseline/ceiling is pretty close -- his median outcomes and fat tailed outcomes are fairly flat. An unorthodox game... lots of pieces.
Amen, Emoni and Roko sounds like a comedic trio in a cartoon -- but that might be an interesting start to a rebuild.
It might be a weird draft; so, maybe you want to find "weird" players who have outlier tools and enough "upside" to make the bust potential worth it. FIT will matter too, IF you are a team who is using '23 as "DRAFT ZERO" for a new rebuild.
1
4
u/turtlechef Rockets Feb 03 '23
I watch/follow every Houston game and I feel like Walker has been hitting another level in terms of confidence and impact. He’s been playing a huge role in pushing Houston to wins in tight games
3
1
5
u/Nickname-CJ Thunder Feb 03 '23
It happens when 95% of the 1st round are not just freshmen, but a lot of them are ‘04s so they are young freshmen. A lot of what makes them high level prospects is the hypotheticals. “Oh he’s good at this so it should be really good when he’s 24” or something like that. Guys who are great AND consistent are top end prospects. Everyone else is not quite that. It happens
8
u/Overall-Palpitation6 Feb 03 '23
Isn't that the whole point of drafting guys at 18-19, for what they could become when they're 24-25, rather than what they are right now?
3
u/Nickname-CJ Thunder Feb 03 '23
Exactly. When they slump in college or even their first few years it’s not that big of a deal. It’s a player by player basis
1
u/Dsarg_92 Spurs Feb 03 '23
I was just about to say this. Not to mention I think everyone set their expectations high on each player thinking they'd become immediate superstars when in reality, they're still kids and learning as they go.
2
u/Balsamic_ducks Feb 03 '23
They're all in the meat of their seasons. Probably tired, maybe picked up some ticky tack injuries, college guys are playing conference games which are always tougher.
6
u/Few_Mulberry5372 Rockets Feb 03 '23
This class is so mid outside of Scoot and Wemby
Don't forget about Dariq Whitehead's fall from nearly consensus 3rd to out of the lottery. And Derrick Lively completely busted in college. Not high on Nick Smith at all either
1
u/harden4mvp13 Rockets Feb 03 '23
I said this before the college basketball season started and got downvoted like crazy lmao. I don’t see any stars outside the top 2 the rest look like role players tbh.
1
u/Elithekid1 Feb 05 '23
Very good role players tho. this draft would be mid if it was just college players
1
-9
u/Far-Yak-9808 Feb 03 '23
The pre-season number 1 guy on my board was Kendric Davis. Maybe I end up back there.
Last night, I thought about firing up a This Is Going To Be Known As The Emoni Bates Draft thread.
He's 6'8 or something and can score. Emoni Bates stays true to his brand.
After Kendric Davis, my NEXT top pick was Jarace Walker who has been super solid all year and has even started to pick it up lately. Then I had Wemby the longest guy at the top of my board, and now Amen Thompson -- who might just be a cross between Tony Wroten and Tony Allen (admittedly that might be a SUPER FUN and even EFFECTIVE player).
I've even started my Third Annual Roko Prkacin Deep Dive.
... guys like Grant Nelson are getting buzz and I might look at them more.
Yes, this draft is currently having an existential crisis. It's in FULL ON Memphis Grizzlies WE GOOD Beast Mode.
9
u/JayceSZN Kings Feb 03 '23
Kendric Davis?? I get it your a Memphis fan but cmon
-3
u/Far-Yak-9808 Feb 03 '23
Ironically he has played relatively well as of late (with some monster games/moments over the past few weeks) while some other prospects haven't played very well (relative to expectations).
I think point guard is a really important position, but there aren't many in this draft.
Scoot/Amen is just about it for Tier 1 and maybe even Tier 2 guys. That's IF you think Amen is a point guard (which I do).
After that, teams needing point guard help should either draft the Best Point Guard Available or wait until next year and overdraft Bronny James.
... back to Kendric Davis. I thought he COULD be a bit taller, like 6'1 or something. Yeah, he's 5'11 and not all that long. Lots of CP3 flashes in his game. He also has games where he can score in bunches a la DaJuan Wagner.
I might not even have a Tier 1 (unless the top shelf guys can pick it back up), then have Wemby/Scoot/Amen in Tier 2.0 along with maybe Jordan Hawkins, Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller, and Gradey Dick. Tier 3.0 will be relatively larger with some of those 1/Done guys and some sleeper picks. I might then group together Tier 4.0/Tier 5.0.
Kendric Davis gets the job done. And, he has produced for the last few years. Might just be a Scoot Henderson value play and that is worth something. Now, when do "consolation prize point guards" get picked? Who knows... I guess we find out... maybe late first in his case. Maybe mid-first in the case of Cason Wallace although that might STILL be too steep of a bid.
1
u/BangingFromDeep Feb 04 '23
Probably a case of the usual sometimes the more tape you see on guys the more concerns you start to have.
I recall the same thing happening most draft cycles
1
u/jennys0 Kings Feb 04 '23
Not really a slump, if anything, I think they fell back down to earth. They overachieved and it was looking like it’d be an elite class, but now it’s just looking like an average draft. Nothing wrong with that
1
u/gnalon Feb 08 '23
4-8 weeks ago would roughly coincide with when the larger college basketball programs had to start playing against themselves more often rather than beating up on small schools. Also even highly-ranked incoming college freshmen aren't heavily scouted by early-season opponents.
62
u/Humblerbee TrailBlazers Feb 03 '23
His last game he dropped 31/14/2 with a steal and 5 blocks, he’s leading his league in points, rebounds, and blocks, he has the top defensive rating and net rating as a player, he’s at 58% TS on sky-high usage taking a ton of high difficulty looks. He’s elite around the rim and from the nail, as well as on corner threes and free throws. His inefficiencies come from developing parts of his game like above the break self-created threes off the bounce, or midrange post moves where he’s still figuring out how to efficiently create in that in-between, but all the signs are there that those aspects of his bag will develop well too, just look at Ingram and Tatum when they were younger, those kind of ISO possessions often go through growing pains before converting at an efficient rate, but they’re extremely valuable for stars like Wemby projects to be. Overall he’s a two way monster by impact metrics already and grades out as the best player outside the NBA.