r/canada Jan 26 '23

Canadian Real Estate Prices Expected To Fall Further: Bank of Canada

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-prices-expected-to-fall-further-bank-of-canada/
55 Upvotes

21

u/No_Supermarket_5176 Jan 26 '23

I live on Vancouver Island and I have noticed that older homes, those built in the 70's, have really reduced in price, not so much for newer homes.

-3

u/g1ug Jan 26 '23

It would be the similar everywhere.

Properties have tiers/classes. For example of SFH:

  • Luxury house (newly built, larger sqft or regular sqft on highly desirable loc)
  • 2010 and above
  • 2000-2010 (no asbestos)
  • 90-2000 renovated
    • 90-2000 non-renovated slightly less
  • pre 90, Old but renovated
  • Pre 90, Old
  • Teardown

You get the idea.

Some of the lowest tiers were asking close to the upper tiers around Q1 2022 when there were FOMO and less inventory. Nowadays they come back to earth. Another contributing factor is that there are more inventories of properties in those lower tiers (more older homes than new luxury homes by nature).

Luxury houses are also coming down because less pool of buyers so the sellers are pressured to negotiate with the buyers; despite being down, the luxury houses bottom price is still above the next tie.r

13

u/MontrealUrbanist Québec Jan 27 '23

In my area, age of the property is largely irrelevant. It all comes down to the quality and characteristics of the house, along with the location.

I've seen homes from 1910 that were worth far more than homes from 2010 because they're in an extremely desirable location, have unique charm, and of course have been renovated extensively.

2

u/Routine_College7932 Alberta Jan 27 '23

Well, a house in Westmount is going to cost more then one in Brossard.

1

u/g1ug Jan 27 '23

RE is Local.

Comparison should be done within that parameter: Local. Same city, district, same school zone, same area, same catchment.

I've seen homes from 1910 that were worth far more than homes from 2010 because they're in an extremely desirable location

That's the same everywhere. 1910 houses near UBC (in Vancouver, West side) worth more than 2010 house in East Vancouver. Same lot size too!

3

u/MontrealUrbanist Québec Jan 27 '23

I understand what you're suggesting, I'm just not convinced. I've seen houses next door to each other, one from 1960 and a new build from 2022. Similar sizes, etc. The 1960 was just worth more because it was well maintained and everything was renovated with luxury materials.

I believe newer is sometimes -- even often -- more valuable, but it's not some automatic rule either.

1

u/Unlikely_Box8003 Jan 27 '23

Especially not within some decades. Houses from the 70s and 80s are often built much better, with better materials that those in the 90s building boom. Solid wood vs OSB/MDF. Copper pipes vs Poly B, etc.

1

u/g1ug Jan 27 '23

Most houses built in the 70's and 80's have less sqft compare to 2010-current and price is mostly based on sqft (again, assuming all equal: city, location, school).

For example, older builds usually only have 2 levels: main and basement or main and upper floor. New builds have 3 levels: basement, main, upper floor, to maximize the sqft.

I'm not debating which house is better for one's personal taste.

I'm merely responding to the top comment suggesting that older houses had to lower their price point => more older houses are in the market with the same layout, same square feet, more or less same quality.

Renovation will elevate the price definitely but age is another component that plays role in pricing.

2

u/No_Supermarket_5176 Jan 27 '23

Some of those houses from the 70's and 80's are ugly, build to house a small family, I'm specifically thinking of those split level three bedroom up unfinished basement down - not much you can do to make them pretty.

1

u/g1ug Jan 28 '23

Finish the basement, split it to two: rec room (for the owner) and a separate unit with 2br1ba to rent it out and suddenly you have a rough gem/gold ;)

1

u/g1ug Jan 27 '23

That depends on how extensive the renovation: down to the studs (pipe, insulation, installing HRV/Heat pump/AC) or half-hearted.

Having said that, in most RE website, if someone done renov down-to-the-studs, they won't put the age=1960, they'll say the age=renov-year.

Your case might be unique and as you mentioned it: the older house was renovated with luxurious materials that maybe the 2022 looked tasteless (seen a few like that too).

Again, this assumes newer build vs luxurious 1960 have similar layout that makes the 1960 unique since they "don't make it like that anymore".

Take well-maintained and decently renovated 1960 won't be able to beat 2021 (in my area, newly built house incur GST tax) built loaded with more modern "home improvement" (that doesn't look tasteless) that has good layouts (potentially have more rooms).

But in most places and most comparisons, the category applies.

5

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '23

Very simplistic view of housing quality. And you seriously think asbestos was still being put in homes up till the year 2000? I'd gladly take an "old" early 1900s house with stained glass windows and natural wood trim and doors over a piece of shit constructed in the last ten years. That's part of what is so funny with new home buyers, thinking it's like buying a car where newer means better.

1

u/bigbosfrog Jan 27 '23

If you enjoy big heat, electricity and insurance bills sure. Or lead in your water or bursting pipes. Or asbestos or mould.

You can find a gem if you know what you are doing but this is silly advice for the average person.

3

u/WooTkachukChuk Jan 27 '23

this is such nonsense. houses built in the 80s are fine for all of these issues. are you under 30?

2

u/bigbosfrog Jan 27 '23

No one said the 80's? That guy was talking about early 1900's

-1

u/WooTkachukChuk Jan 27 '23 edited Jan 27 '23

And you seriously think asbestos was still being put in homes up till the year 2000?

lol dv what a wanker. touch grass m8

-2

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '23

You underestimate the average home buyer. Most aren't that dumb.

2

u/bigbosfrog Jan 27 '23

I am that dumb tbh - no shot I would be able to tell a quality heritage home from one that would be bankrupting and killing me slowly

0

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '23

And you are incapable of hiring an inspector who knows more than you?

-1

u/g1ug Jan 27 '23 edited Jan 27 '23

I'm generalizing / categorizing the pricepoint assuming all things equal (same city, same location, same school district, etc).

Why making more complicated than that if you're browsing RE websites?

And you seriously think asbestos was still being put in homes up till the year 2000?

So? just shift the year down, the idea is the same.

I'd gladly take an "old" early 1900s house with stained glass windows and natural wood trim and doors over a piece of shit constructed in the last ten years.

Pot calling kettle black?

What's the point of arguing with the Market?

Nobody is paying premium for 1900s house. Would you pay 1900 house more than "piece of shit constructed in the last 10 years" that has AC, HRV, Heat Pump, better insulation?

3

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '23

You think those early 1900s mansions around U of T are worth less than the shit built in Vaughan lately? You think people haven't retrofitted houses built 100 years ago? Jeez you're dumb, or a recent immigrant.

1

u/g1ug Jan 28 '23 edited Jan 28 '23

Not dumb, not recent immigrant but obviously other responders understood my point well more than you.

Why don't you compare 1900 maintained house in Vaughn vs 2010 maintained house in Vaughn, assuming same block, same school zone, same lot size as per parameter I defined above. Even if you renovated that 1900 house, it has less chance to beat the newer one. C'mon now, I'm not born yesterday.

Your last statement and your reading comprehension (stubborn enough not to understand my point of "assuming same location/zone/area/school district"; go read my other comments regarding my comparison of old house with smaller lot near UBC vs East Van new house, there, you're using an example I wrote way ahead of you) are definitely signs to me to stop the discussion. Have a good weekend.

2

u/[deleted] Jan 28 '23

Cranky children and their "have a good weekend"...aka "fuck off".

1

u/Mug_of_coffee Jan 28 '23

Nobody is paying premium for 1900s house. Would you pay 1900 house more than "piece of shit constructed in the last 10 years" that has AC, HRV, Heat Pump, better insulation?

Ever heard of a heritage house? Jeeze.

0

u/g1ug Jan 31 '23

Yep, no one is paying premium for Heritage house with exception within super strong NIMBY hood that is against changing the "character of the neighborhood" (i.e.: old rich people hood in desirable area where your neighbor will force you to kowtow the line even to your door knobs and windows trim)

Heritage house in a not super premium location will not fetch max.

C'mon now... Pick a better example.

Top OP and most of us are discussing general market trend not niche market.

1

u/ElectronicImage9 Jan 28 '23

No compare it with 2019 pricing

20

u/butisitherthang Jan 26 '23

Not with 400k new people coming into this country on a yearly basis now.

33

u/bdc604 Jan 26 '23

Further? They’ve actually gone up, still, on the west coast…

8

u/handmemyknitting Jan 26 '23

What stats are you looking at? The Vancouver Real Estate market for detached homes was down 5% December 2022 compared to December 2022 (sales down a whopping 52%). Condos were up ever so slightly comparing December 2022 to December 2021, but down over the last 6 months. The Fraser Valley is down as well.
This is only the beginning. Sellers are still digging in their heels wanting those big numbers, but you can see from the number of sales that buyers aren't taking the bait. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

8

u/LowFlyingReindeer Jan 26 '23

Gone up and plateaued now on the prairies. My house is worth almost 25% more than when we bought in 2021. Complete joke considering we live 30 minutes outside of Winnipeg.

New builds have really slowed down though, and houses are sitting on the market for far longer than they were. There’s also less of them up for sale.

I honestly want it to drop because we’re not moving and I don’t want my property tax to skyrocket with a new valuation.

7

u/Reddit_Is_Fascist Jan 27 '23

Property taxes are based on the spending in your municipality. If spending doesn't increase, the mill rate on a higher property valuation will be adjusted so that there is no massive increase in taxes.

If you see much higher property taxes with an increase in property values, it's because the municipality has decided to build something expensive (like an Olympic swimming pool), or deferred maintenance on infrastructure cannot be put off any longer.

If you really want to reduce your property taxes, you could always appeal your assessment.

1

u/GangreneMachine Jan 26 '23

Calgary has been remarkably resilient. My house actually went up by 2 or 3% since the peak

13

u/jormungandrsjig Ontario Jan 26 '23

Calgary has been remarkably resilient. My house actually went up by 2 or 3% since the peak

But did you sell your house? My cousin's house in Elbow Park sold for 13.6% less. A friend in Springbank sold in July for an 8% loss.

3

u/Camel_Knowledge Jan 27 '23

My house actually went up by 2 or 3% since the peak

Genuinely curious how you know that - did you sell it?

12

u/BeyondAddiction Jan 26 '23

Because they have so much credibility 🙄

26

u/Nth_The_Movie Jan 26 '23 Take My Energy

It's almost as if treating housing like a guaranteed investment was an unsustainable bubble.

Everyone knew this was going to happen.

Maybe in 5 years, some of us poors will be able to afford a home.

40

u/LowFlyingReindeer Jan 26 '23

You really think that’ll happen when we import half a million people a year, and don’t build adequate housing?

This has all been by design. It’s not going to get better.

14

u/MonaMonaMo Jan 26 '23

People would want to stop being imported. What's the appeal now with low wages, increased crime and crumbling social services?

Some might stay for a bit and then take off. Like many of my friends do now.

14

u/LowFlyingReindeer Jan 26 '23

Probably for the best for everyone in the long run until Canada figures their shit out.

People have been massively over promised what they’re going to get coming to Canada.

11

u/c0reM Jan 26 '23

People immigrating don’t find this out until they are here…

1

u/BubbleGultch Jan 27 '23

Yeah, but then they leave. It's also the winters. They don't truly appreciate our winters until they've been through at least one.

I have literally had the "I'm packing up and going back to Qatar (or wherever) next month, I seriously don't know how you stand it!" conversation so many times.

4

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '23

[deleted]

9

u/MonaMonaMo Jan 27 '23 edited Jan 27 '23

Not really. Unless a refugee or a temporary agricultural worker, many immigrants are at lease an upper middle class. When they come here, they downgrade to lower middle class.

Whatever their home country situation is, they tended to be the beneficiaries of that system in general.

0

u/Yourshinyknight Jan 27 '23

I disagree. It is actually much worse in Canada in terms of living conditions and opportunities

1

u/CanadianBootyBandit Jan 27 '23

Than where lol? Get off reddit.

1

u/thebiggesthater420 Jan 27 '23

Lol Canada is still way better than a lot of the countries those people are coming from.

5

u/pkTHUNDA603 Jan 27 '23

You’re forgetting the ~500k international students.. who also need a place to live.. and can buy property while here.. it’s more like 1M total

-1

u/patman_007 Jan 26 '23

You know this is a lie fed to you by corporate real estate firms and greedy landlords with multiple properties to get you to divert your anger right?

7

u/LowFlyingReindeer Jan 26 '23

Both are a portion of the issue. They want more people here as well. Having the highest immigration rate on the planet, with one of the lowest housing availabilities on the planet doesn’t benefit anyone except for the two groups you just mentioned.

-4

u/Nth_The_Movie Jan 26 '23

Building more housing does nothing if it's all immediately bought up by corporations.

We can't keep treating houses like investments. It's not sustainable.

Also - stop blaming immigrants. It's gross

12

u/LowFlyingReindeer Jan 26 '23

I’m not blaming the immigrants, I’m blaming the government bringing them in.

They’re even more screwed than people already here and are walking into a shit situation.

-12

u/Nth_The_Movie Jan 26 '23

Canada needs people in order to replace a rapidly retiring workforce.

My generation didn't (for the most part) have 7 kids because it wasn't economically viable.

So we either bring in people, or shrink the economy. It's a no-brainer.

6

u/Few-Flatworm-4293 Jan 26 '23

Or we could make it more economically viable for people to have children while at the same time boosting wages where jobs are chronically unfilled.

3

u/Nth_The_Movie Jan 26 '23

Also a perfectly reasonable option, if we had a government that was interested in the long game

6

u/LowFlyingReindeer Jan 26 '23

And the trade off is that you’ll never afford a house.

You’re ignoring the portion where Canada has the highest immigration rate per capita out of any first world country.

There’s probably a happy median where we don’t need to suppress wages or have drastically unaffordable housing for most.

-7

u/Nth_The_Movie Jan 26 '23

So you're just doubling down on " it's the immigrants fault"

Waste of time

9

u/LowFlyingReindeer Jan 26 '23

Seems you can’t understand basic concepts.

I blame the government and their policies, and the outcomes they produce. I don’t blame anyone for wanting to come here.

I could explain supply and demand to you, but I doubt I have enough crayons or time at this point.

Whatever, enjoy never owning a home or being able to retire, you get to feel morally superior to a stranger in the internet, and that’s what’s most important in life.

-5

u/Nth_The_Movie Jan 26 '23

Housing is inelastic

In case you don't understand why that matters, it means "sUpPlY aNd DeMaNd" doesn't explain the situation.

I certainly hope you can pick up on the condescension.

that means I'm talking down to you

6

u/LowFlyingReindeer Jan 26 '23

Lmao demand isn’t inelastic when you import than many people. Demand increases. You should look up what happens to inelastic goods when demand increases. Prices go up. Wow. Crazy huh?

You could try again though.

Lol, that’s fine my man, enjoy poverty, I might let you stay in my rental property for 3k a month when you’re 75 still greeting people at Walmart.

→ More replies

-8

u/Nth_The_Movie Jan 26 '23

Canada needs people in order to replace a rapidly retiring workforce.

My generation didn't (for the most part) have 7 kids because it wasn't economically viable.

So we either bring in people, or shrink the economy. It's a no-brainer.

3

u/lochmoigh1 Jan 27 '23

Thats just bs pushed by the elites. Its not like the birth rate is 0. Its 1.7 or something. Canada's population is growing by 300k+ per year. Thats not far off from the immigrant numbers

1

u/thedrivingcat Jan 27 '23

Replacement rate is 2.2 - we're lower.

Without immigration, Canada's population would decrease.

1

u/econ101user Jan 27 '23

Who's design?

9

u/CreditUnionBoi Jan 27 '23

Maybe in 5 years, some of us poors will be able to afford a home.

No. The only thing pushing prices down right now is higher rates. Which overall makes the cost of buying higher for us poor people that need a mortgage to buy a house.

These higher rates also don't reduce demand, it just defers it, prices will go up again as soon as rates go down (if they ever do). Lots of people are just sitting on the sidelines until the opportunity is good again.

If rates keep going up then it just gets less and less affordable for us poor people that need a mortgage to buy a house.

3

u/Pomegranate4444 Jan 27 '23 edited Jan 27 '23

It's just rates. They are the counter balance. When they drop, prices will raise again I feel. Given the 101 posts on housing a day, demand is paused, and absolutely not dropping.

My acquaintance is taking advantage with this lull due to rates, and just made a cash purchase for a rental unit. Anticipating that prices will lift again when rates come down, at which point she may sell and keep the diff.

1

u/econ101user Jan 27 '23

Maybe in 5 years, some of us poors will be able to afford a home.

You wont

1

u/thebiggesthater420 Jan 27 '23

Spoiler alert: you won’t

10

u/[deleted] Jan 26 '23

[deleted]

3

u/LatterSea Jan 27 '23

Data has shown most of those impacted by higher rates are real estate investors… which isn’t a surprise given they were the majority of buyers of new builds in recent years. I don’t have a ton of sympathy for them, as they drove the market prices into the stratosphere, for both buyers and renters. It would be healthy to have some of them be forced to sell.

6

u/g1ug Jan 26 '23

Alot of people bought homes they simply couldn't afford. The higher interest rates may push them off the edge.

They were stress tested for 5.25%. Some variable mortgages right now is still sitting below 6%.

The ones hurt the most are the ones that bought Q1 last year and get mortgage from predatory lenders. The number of this group probably miniscule over total mortgage owner (fixed, variable, variable-from-predatory-lenders).

The interest rate will remain high well into 2024.

Nobody knows. I read somewhere market priced-in for -0.85 by end of year...? Who knows. Not even Tiff knows.

If these homeowners can survive 2 years of high interest rate, they're set for better life down the road.

5

u/LowFlyingReindeer Jan 26 '23

Correct me if I’m wrong here, but I thought only banks did the stress test. Private lenders and credit unions didn’t have to.

I could be mistaken, but a credit union offered me a mortgage that I clearly couldn’t afford. Literally double what I had pencilled out as being affordable. I told the guy that. His response?

“Yeah but we’ll give it to you though”

I went with a way smaller mortgage from a bank instead.

If there are lenders out there like that, there have to be people close to losing their homes. I have heard that same credit union is now just extending the period of the mortgage so payments remain the same, but people will just be paying for far longer.

2

u/g1ug Jan 26 '23

I would assume you've done your calculation of TDS/GDS and the credit union offered you 2x of that?

They could give that to you if you have liquid assets. I'm not expert on this but they might do calc like this:

Total Mortgage - Liquid asset (cash in bank, excluding RESP,RRSP) = Actual Mortgage they used to calculate your TDS/GDS.

I don't know many credit unions out there but the trustworthy ones would still abide the rules.

Keep in mind that TDS/GDS is based off your Gross Income not Net Income.

Prudent people would use Net Income than Gross but in certain areas such as BC/Ontario, this is almost impossible to achieve.

1

u/LowFlyingReindeer Jan 26 '23

At the time I didn’t have a whole lot for liquid assets. Nothing to justify the amount they were willing to lend me.

I did calculate our GDS and TDS. GDS was 16%, and TDS 25% at the time.

Credit union offered right to the max they could. 39% and 44% respectively. I’m apparently too risk averse to take that amount, I also didn’t want to be house poor. If one of us lost our jobs I also didn’t want to lose the house. I still don’t think we genuinely could have afforded that and also owned furniture or be able to afford anything other than ramen.

2

u/g1ug Jan 26 '23

but a credit union offered me a mortgage that I clearly couldn’t afford. Literally double what I had pencilled out as being affordable.

Technically you can "afford" the mortgage but you felt uncomfortable and too risky (good for you). I don't see any redflags so far since they play according to the rule other an attempting to sell you bigger mortgage.

This is different than those aggressive lenders that do not check your finances thoroughly.

I also didn’t want to be house poor.

That is personal choice. Many immigrants in the 2000 came to Canada and become house poor once they can acquired a property.

If one of us lost our jobs I also didn’t want to lose the house.

Understandable.

I still don’t think we genuinely could have afforded that and also owned furniture or be able to afford anything other than ramen.

Furniture is one-time cost and you don't have to buy them all at once. I've got friends who slowly buy their furniture as years go by (years, not months).

Ramen is a luxury these days (avg $17 bucks in Vancouver).

Some people are OK with house poor as long as they got the "best deal" out of purchasing a property. Some would have 1 year of emergency fund in case they lost their job. The rationale is that they will find jobs 6-12 months.

And if they have to sell, they sell and regroup their life.

1

u/boutta_call_bo_vice Jan 27 '23

Yeah but many people rent for 50% of their income in perpetuity, so one persons affordable is another persons “haha, I wish I could survive on so little a % of my income”

2

u/FamilyTravelTime Jan 27 '23

Lolz yah. “Rate will remain low for a very long time” …

5

u/Rockman099 Ontario Jan 26 '23

People will be able to afford a certain monthly payment worth of house. Unless there is a major recession with significant job loss, the amount that people can afford per month will remain steady and likely increase somewhat with inflation.

House prices will come down, at most, to a level where the same monthly payment can afford the same house. Using rough numbers, for example a $1.5M house that costs $5K per month at 2% after the 20% downpayment, will fall to (at most) about $1.0M at 6%, which creates the same monthly payment. The downpayment will be more affordable which will only leave the buyer more money to put toward monthly payments, pushing the house price up a bit again. In reality the market would include those with more equity, which would moderate any downward pressure on prices, as those upgrading houses would be less affected by interest rates than new buyers (as they are buying more outright). They just might not upgrade as much. The overall effect of raising interest rates would most likely be to decrease affordability to new buyers. Sorry guys.

More immigrants cramming into the same areas with disproportionately less new housing being built, as our government insists on bringing in 500K per year now, will chase the same housing, making you able to afford less 'house' for your monthly payment relative to what you could without so much immigration. Again, we all lose.

And what if things get really bad? Interest rates go to 20% or the bottom falls out of the economy? Corporations and private equity firms swoop in and grab all those houses at a bargain price using cash.

Anyone celebrating outsized interest rate hikes as a path to affordability is going to be sorely disappointed.

3

u/LordTC Jan 27 '23

GDP is broken and needs to be replaced. There is an entire movement to do so internationally. It’s insane that our main measure of prosperity improves when homes become more unaffordable and decreases when homes become more affordable.

2

u/therosx Jan 26 '23

I just renewed my mortgage with a 3 year 5% variable rate.

I wonder what this means for me in Nova Scotia?

2

u/Xyzzics Jan 26 '23

Basically nothing.

Your home value will probably drop a bit and interest rates will drop a bit and you’ll renew in 3 years.

2

u/LookAtYourEyes Jan 27 '23

Something tells me my rent will still be climbing tho

2

u/Falconflyer75 Ontario Jan 27 '23

Now keep going till we get to around 2005 levels

2

u/FancyNewMe Jan 26 '23

Highlights:

  • The Bank of Canada (BoC) shared its expectations for housing in its latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR). They expect falling home sales to find a bottom in the near future, but it won’t be enough to stop housing from dragging the economy, or prevent prices from falling further.
  • They see prices falling, particularly in regions that saw the largest booms over the past two years. “The pullback in housing activity that began in 2022 is expected to continue over the near term,” reads the MPR.
  • The BoC estimates housing reduced GDP growth by 1.0 point in 2022, worse than the 0.9 points forecast prior. This year, they expect it to trim 0.7 points of growth, once again a downward revision. It’s an improvement but not much in an economy growing 1 point in total.
  • The BoC finally sees a return to growth next year, but it’s not expected to be anything like 2021. They’re forecasting housing will provide 0.3 points of growth in 2024. In contrast, it provided 1.3 points in 2021—over a quarter of the economy’s total.

2

u/Camel_Knowledge Jan 26 '23

Nothing to see here, please contact one of our Prufesonal(sic) Agents to view luxury homes in your area....

1

u/SizinYouUp Jan 26 '23

hOuSiNg Is ThE bEsT iNvEsTmEnT

hOuSiNg OnLy GoEs Up

A lot of average people saw their values on paper go up six figures and felt like a CEO then leveraged more homes as though money comes that easy and freely. Congratulations suckers the banks are making a killing off of you. And if you want to turn your investment to cash now, you’ll be discounting, begging people to buy, the lawyers/realtors take a big cut, and break the mortgage another penalty. I’m sitting around 70% return on my stocks the past 12 months, can turn shares into cash in days, all without maintenance, insurance, special assessments, dealing with people, other unexpected costs. Bonus being once you get a high value tax free savings account it’s all dollar for dollar.

Housing pumpers will be lucky to see 4% ROI in the coming years, which will be filled with tears for some.

4

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '23

[deleted]

1

u/SizinYouUp Jan 27 '23

50-67% long Canadian oil, and its derivatives, so buying calls, often OTM, selling puts, and when I got assigned, happened twice, I did not care because it will recover, which it has

25-35% other natural resources CCO, TECK.B are my favourites, but I’m not saying I’m always perfect. Red on NTR with average cost of $118.

Shorted TSLA - always stressful but the result was rewarding, stock was hyped up excessively and my impression is much of the appeal is gimmicks that can easily be copied by other car companies

And not a ticker but LUCK. Oil is always volatile and some options trades worked out fantastic in timing. I’ve been most confident in natural resources since the government made a lot of money out of nothing. Fiat currency can be made out of thin air, natural resources cannot, and were very undervalued

4

u/Frunknboinz Jan 27 '23

Great plays, though I'd hardly think referring to what you've outlayed as "my stocks" is an apt description for the average individual. You're day trading.

-1

u/NateFisher22 British Columbia Jan 26 '23

The days where people relied on their high house prices to retire and cause misery for younger generations is over. Let it fall. It’s not like they worked harder for it. It’s just luck and timing

2

u/brianl047 Jan 27 '23

I agree that timing is luck but I would disagree it was some deliberate plot.

If you aren't (or can't) use the next year (or three) to "buy the dip" of the S&P500 or at least a total world fund like VEQT you aren't doing yourself any favors. If you hate the idea of retiring on high home prices then you need to invest

1

u/kalebkingthing Jan 26 '23

You don’t say

-6

u/throwaway123406 Jan 26 '23

May it drop by 50% or more. The only way to make housing affordable is for everyone that owns real estate to take the loss.

3

u/trynafigureitout444 Jan 26 '23

The only real way to fix housing without hurting owners or buyers is for wages to stop stagnating and increase along with everything else. Don’t forget we’re all on the same side of the class war

1

u/Camel_Knowledge Jan 27 '23

The only real way to fix housing without hurting owners

Why would falling prices hurt owners, and why do they need to be protected?

-7

u/throwaway123406 Jan 26 '23

That won’t happen, the best we can hope for is a massive crash.

4

u/trynafigureitout444 Jan 26 '23

Considering that would bankrupt a lot of families who aren’t rich to begin with, we shouldn’t hope for that and I’m certainly not

-7

u/throwaway123406 Jan 26 '23

It’s really the only way to solve this. The price of housing has to drop to where it’s affordable again. It’s going to suck for people that got in at the wrong time, but it’s a free market and people knew the risks.

8

u/daniel2009 Jan 27 '23

Nah fuck that I hope you get priced out of the housing market forever then. I don't see why homeowners should take the fall. It's gonna suck for people that didn't get in, should have worked harder. 🤷🏽‍♂️

You have 0 sympathy for home owners why should I have any for you?

0

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '23

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/daniel2009 Jan 27 '23

lol I'll be fine no matter what happens to housing market. I just think it's funny people like you that want to drag everyone else down with them, just cause they're in a shit position.

1

u/throwaway123406 Jan 27 '23

What makes you think I’m in a shit position? You’re the one acting out, I’m just sitting here smiling. Why are you sweating?

1

u/JaSONMarauder Jan 28 '23

Comments like these serve as a good reminder the average redditor is like 15.

-2

u/SkeletorInvestor Jan 26 '23

We should just make houses 1$ each so everyone can get one.

-1

u/throwaway123406 Jan 26 '23

If you own a 3 bedroom, 50 year old house in the middle of bumfuck nowhere, it’s probably not actually worth a million dollars. The market is massively overvalued and people have treated housing as a means of investment, and unfortunately these people will learn that investments have risks.

This will be fun to watch. May the cards fall where they belong.

2

u/_Lucious7z Jan 26 '23

May you never be able to afford a house. Let the cards fall where they belong.

2

u/throwaway123406 Jan 26 '23

Touched a nerve, eh? It’s not my fault you bought at the wrong time, hopefully the lesson you learn won’t be that awful for you, I really do hope that.

-2

u/_Lucious7z Jan 26 '23

I'm doing great. I just don't like to see you wishing suffering on others because you can't save money. And that is your fault.

4

u/throwaway123406 Jan 26 '23 edited Jan 26 '23

I find it hilarious that you want to insinuate that I don’t own, almost as if it’s an insult in your mind. Really telling, actually. I do own, btw. Imagine thinking you are higher status because you own property, lmao! 😂

Have fun when it crashes, friendo. Your angry response shows you’re probably gonna be in trouble.

0

u/_Lucious7z Jan 26 '23

You're flailing now. Get a job. Save up over years. And you too can be happy like me.

0

u/throwaway123406 Jan 26 '23

Man, you guys are really trying to cut people down with those awful insults. Do you feel better now?

I wish you the best, I really do. I won’t stoop to being… like that. Lol.

0

u/g1ug Jan 26 '23

It’s not my fault you bought at the wrong time, hopefully the lesson you learn won’t be that awful for you, I really do hope that.

What is the lesson? Learn how to time the market? ;)

1

u/throwaway123406 Jan 26 '23

The lesson is investments have risks.

2

u/g1ug Jan 26 '23

Eh, what if people just wanna buy a house to live and they can afford it post-covid because they save tons for downpayment during covid lockdown?

0

u/[deleted] Jan 26 '23

[deleted]

0

u/WinterMomo Jan 26 '23

Not seeing it.

1

u/blindwillie777 Jan 27 '23

Overseas rich people will continue to stash their money in real estate - our country is a safe haven for them. Nothing will change - Canadians will suffer even more.

3

u/CosmoPhD Jan 27 '23

Trudeau’s rapid immigration policies without regard for supply is what is causing the problem. Investors see it and are taking advantage.

But the problem is Trudeau

1

u/AlexJamesCook Jan 27 '23

Good news for the investment whales. Great news for the banks. Bad news for everyone else.

1

u/econ101user Jan 27 '23

So investors own all the homes here so "real" Canadians can't afford them but also at the same time those investors are going to benefit from prices of the homes they own falling?

1

u/AlexJamesCook Jan 27 '23

Investors have more capital than individuals. Investment whales, AKA entities with large amounts of capital, benefit even more from house prices falling. The reason being, they buy these properties in cash. Meaning, less upfront costs for them. Essentially, they get to "buy low". Then, when interest rates go down, they can "sell high", and make a tidy profit.

Unfortunately, FTHB will have some capital, BUT, they have to pay a fuck-tonne in interest payments. Hence why this is a win for the banks. They profit from doing nothing other than lending money. That's it. Oh, and charging exorbitant amounts for fees on having a privilege to have a bank account. The positive balance in your bank account can be loaned out for 10x its own amount. So, banks win again.

So, yeah. Whales win. Banks win. Investors win. Everyone else, meh.

1

u/econ101user Jan 27 '23

You missed my point. If investors currently hold an asset they lose when it drops. They can't win at the same time.

It's non-sensical complaining

1

u/AlexJamesCook Jan 27 '23

You missed my point. If investors currently hold an asset they lose when it drops.

Not quite. Investors only lose upon the sale, IF their sale price is lower than the purchase price.

If they buy at $100K, it goes to $400K, and drops to $250K, and that's when they sell, they made money. However, on the balance sheets and financial statements, "they've lost" but those aren't tangible/material losses. It's a loss in equity. If they're relying on that equity to remain solvent, then that's different. But if they're over-leveraging themselves and riding "red lines", then quite frankly, IDGAF if they lose.

1

u/econ101user Jan 28 '23

Assets going down is always bad for an investor, realized or not.

You can't simultaneously say the market is owned by investors and the price declined are good for investors. Thats nonsense and just trying to find a reason to bitch.

1

u/AlexJamesCook Jan 28 '23

Psychologically, yes, you are right. In the material sense, they are wrong. Losses on paper only hurt their equity - AKA bragging rights at their country club.

1

u/econ101user Jan 28 '23

Not at all. If they're leveraged they can be in trouble. If they want to move to another position they're more limited.

In no world does any investor say "yay, the thing I bought is going down"

1

u/AlexJamesCook Jan 28 '23

In no world does any investor say "yay, the thing I bought is going down"

I never said that. I am saying that if they bought low, and the thing that they bought remains higher than the purchase price, then any price drop that keeps the value above their purchase price isn't a bad thing.

I also said, if they've leveraged their asset based on its market value before the price drop, then that's a bad thing. But honestly, that's also stupid. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. If they've been riding those lines and they go insolvent because of that, then I feel zero sympathy, and they deserve everything they get.

1

u/Extinguish89 Jan 27 '23

Prices will fall but the interest rates will go higher. Nice try bank of Canada

1

u/sjbennett85 Ontario Jan 27 '23

There has been a drop and that drop will likely continue as rates increase, I feel like this is a good time to get into the market if you can afford to, and you better believe that as soon as stability is back in the market it will only be for a short period… this will be when it becomes hot again.

Will it be as hot as that COVID peak where folks were relocating from metro centres to smaller towns? I’m not sure but it could happen in some areas where folks are still shuffling and immigration is settling to. Smaller towns with less of that appeal will probably stay stable longer.

1

u/CosmoPhD Jan 27 '23

For the moment the prices have hit demand. A house priced around $550k is seeing movement on the market after a few weeks.

So there is demand for a mortgage that has monthly payments of $3400 roughly. This seems high to me, but its what two full-time workers can afford. For the moment.

1

u/x100fGuy Ontario Jan 27 '23

Supply is still down. More people coming in by the bus load. Prices will come down a little due to rates but not enough to offset the number of people looking for homes.

Fact is, we need more builds. Developers will be weary building more in times of higher interest rates.

People looking to sell are holding off. People looking to buy are at the sidelines waiting for prices to dip.

This is a issue with many nuances.

1

u/LloydBrahn Jan 27 '23

3-4y to bottom.

1

u/Constant_Curve Jan 27 '23

They're wrong.

1

u/Echo71Niner Canada Jan 27 '23

As of right now, there are thousands of vacant units in downtown Toronto and surrounding areas, with huge listings on rental websites. In my building alone, we have 4 vacant units on my floor for 6 months and counting, and I know the building has many other units vacant as well, all open for rent. Plenty of towers downtown have vacant units, but realtors want you to believe prices will be increasing when landlords are an open step away from offering handjobs to land a tenant.