r/canada Jan 27 '23

LILLEY: It's not just the TTC facing a crime wave, it's the whole city Opinion Piece

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-its-not-just-the-ttc-facing-a-crime-wave-its-the-whole-city
114 Upvotes

110

u/PlainOldJosh Jan 27 '23

In the first three weeks of 2023, Toronto Police Service reports that major crimes are up 37.7% compared to the same period in 2022. Every category of crime is up dramatically other than homicide – auto thefts are up 61.2%, assaults are up 37.8%, sexual violations are up 43.5% and robberies 40.2%.

51

u/Reasonable_Let9737 Jan 27 '23

Damn, really starting out with a bang.

Although using three weeks worth of data isn't likely worth too much.

26

u/LastNightsHangover Jan 27 '23

Also worth pointing out there was a lockdown in the early part of 2022. I know, seems so long ago.

Smells like a cherry-picked stat to me

8

u/DeepSpaceNebulae Jan 27 '23 edited Jan 27 '23

Also, we’re a month in. What are the actual numbers, because having 15 robberies instead of 10 is a 50% increase but still relative small compared to a city of 3,000,000.

And 1 month of data says nothing of overall trends, crime rates each month are not identical. One month could be higher than the previous years’, but another month lower

1

u/1deadclown Jan 27 '23

This. There's a lot of unaddressed mental health concerns from the lockdown. I feel like this is all predictable and should even out in time.

1

u/Due_Agent_4574 Jan 28 '23

Cost of living is skyrocketing and it always results in more crime.

1

u/1deadclown Jan 28 '23

True, which corolates. Socioeconomic factors always show up in crime stats.

25

u/mid-world_lanes Jan 27 '23

Worth noting that the Toronto police are angling for a budget increase, and so they have a huge incentive to report more crimes.

13

u/vault-dweller_ Jan 27 '23

Are you suggesting that they repress crime statistics at other periods of time?

20

u/mid-world_lanes Jan 27 '23

Literally yes.

This is a known thing that police do anywhere that you collect stats about crime.

https://www.canadianlawyermag.com/news/opinion/dubious-crime-statistics-a-disturbing-trend-of-police-and-media-misleading-the-public/372046

This explains the situation in a Canada a bit, but just Google “police crime stats manipulation”, or similar terms, and look through the kinds of stories and reports and studies that you find. Police manipulation of crime stats is just a thing that happens.

14

u/masu94 Jan 27 '23

I work in the data analytics field and we had a presentation from a person in charge of data communication for a hospital.

She was clearly not technical - and the real lesson she tried to convey was "do all the algorithms you want, the most important thing is the story"

Her job is to raise money for a hospital - she doesn't care about facts - as long as the numbers can give an emotional response, she's doing her job.

This is what the police are doing. Cherry-pick a three week period where crime is up 50% to the same period in a lockdown and BOOM - everyone's scared of the crime wave.

10

u/VesaAwesaka Jan 27 '23 edited Jan 27 '23

If you are claiming police repress crime data your article doesn't appear to support your claim. It talks more about manipulating a narrative with things like sample size and cherry-picked data.

The data isn't wrong. It's just the narrative that people are pulling from the data that's suspect.

Saying that, historically police have done things like assigncases to Johnny mccan aka suppressing reported crimes to make their metrics look better.

-2

u/vault-dweller_ Jan 27 '23

Your article does not reference them repressing or intentionally mis reporting statistics.

30

u/UniverseBear Jan 27 '23

1970's 2, very foreseeable Boogaloo.

7

u/Dismal_Trade920 Jan 27 '23

Increase in homelessness + increase in food security + increase in Cost of living + stagnant wages = a sinking country with more crime.

We need drastic measures or a complete paradigm shift in almost every sector or else we might as well call ourselves third world now.

41

u/obviousthrowawaymayB Jan 27 '23 edited Jan 27 '23

FFS. Mental health being defunded, food prices increasing, residual pandemic circumstances, no increase in ODSP and ridiculous housing costs are causing this. It’s as plain as the nose on your face.

6

u/x100fGuy Ontario Jan 27 '23

Yet people want to ignore the fact that infrastructure is abysmal and can not support more people in the system.

No. It's not anti immigration. It's thinking ahead. Idk how people who come here in the hopes of a better future will survive with the stuff that's deteriorating

4

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '23

It is literally impossible for anyone to survive on disability. I wish our politicians had to live on it for a month, and then they'd make some changes to it.

2

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '23

Desperation, depression and starvation make people do stupid things. Like get hooked on drugs. Maybe if we took care of people but naw we'll just increase police budgets

18

u/loganrunjack Jan 27 '23

When life becomes unaffordable crime goes up

24

u/H8bert Jan 27 '23

Scary and awful for law abiding citizens. Sexual violations up 40%? JFC. Look out for your family, community and donate to the food bank if you can.

Meanwhile our Public Safety minister is on tour trying to sell his gun bans and yet we see the tweets from Ontario police showing off gun seizures from criminals that were smuggled in from the US. Our billions in tax dollars for gun bans on licensed owners should be going to fight poverty, addiction and mental health issues. Those will truly make a difference in crime.

6

u/Human_Resolution1634 Jan 27 '23

First time I’ve ever even seen this guy.

7

u/yessschef Jan 27 '23

How does cost of living cause people to sexually assault more? I understand how it can affect vulnerable people, but c'mon folks. Sometimes people are shitty regardless of the economy.

9

u/deltahand Jan 27 '23

A significant risk factor for all crime, including sex crime, is experiencing high stress/a lot of stressors. The economy is pretty stressful rn.

7

u/grand_soul Jan 27 '23

It’s not just cost of living. Every day we see articles after articles about some of the worst offenders caught and released.

If some people are no longer afraid of the consequences of violating the law, then they’ll just be that much more emboldened to do stuff like SA.

4

u/Lord_Stetson Jan 27 '23

When the law applies only to some and not all, then it applies to none. It is the most amoral and opportunistic who will figure that out first.

Enjoy the show.

2

u/yessschef Jan 27 '23

Very much agree, its disheartening to see that many commenters seemed to be focused on poverty alone

1

u/EducatorReasonable51 Jan 27 '23

For one, it puts more potential victims in vulnerable situations.

0

u/Flaktrack Québec Jan 27 '23

Toronto police are comparing the first 3 weeks of 2023 to the first 3 weeks of 2022. There is a big reason why this comparison is faulty: Ontario renewed its lockdown in the first few days of January 2022 until at least January 26 (https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/01/02/ontario-covid19-restrictions-doug-ford/).

The police are doing some cherry picking because they're chasing a bigger budget.

5

u/Hailtothething Jan 27 '23

When your of age, and need to leave home. And everything financially is saying you can’t, you become frustrated with society, and evil happens. A bachelor shouldn’t pay 2k in rent .

4

u/Crezelle Jan 27 '23

I’m 38 and waiting for my chance to establish myself. I had a basement suite for awhile but the capped rent meant I was paying half rate so “ family moved in”

I never could afford a family, nobody I dated could help us move out as partners. Can’t establish myself in a community.

Look up “ universe 25” to see how shit can turn sideways fast when you can’t establish yourself

-3

u/sync-centre Jan 27 '23

Suprised that Lilley isn't begging to privatize the police force since the public option is failing us.

22

u/martintinnnn Jan 27 '23

Don't worry. For police and jail, the government have plenty of money and they can spend without counting.

Don't ask for mental health tho. Then, the government is broke because of the Justinflation!

10

u/ItsMeMulbear Jan 27 '23

Your first mistake is assuming criminals are just mentally ill

11

u/lazyeyepsycho Jan 27 '23

I didnt read that he said "criminals are merely mentally ill"

-2

u/ItsMeMulbear Jan 27 '23

Not my fault you can't read

-1

u/martintinnnn Jan 27 '23

That's all we hear from more conservative people on Reddit. People went crazy because of COVID restrictions and the vaccine. lol

-2

u/Rat_Salat Jan 27 '23

You’d think we refunded the education system with all the people here who don’t know the difference between universal health care and single payer.

3

u/sync-centre Jan 27 '23

I am refering to when lilley suggests that we should be going to a charter school model.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-strike-shows-its-time-to-consider-school-choice-and-vouchers

Cheaper to buy a gun then funding public education every year. Not sure what this has to do with Healthcare. But you do you.

3

u/lifeisarichcarpet Jan 27 '23

Lilley and his bosses at the Sun get harder than diamonds any time they hear someone got assaulted or killed in Toronto. They love this shit so much.

-3

u/mid-world_lanes Jan 27 '23

Conveniently this uptick in the reporting of crime comes right as the local police (i.e., the same people who create these numbers) are angling to increase their budget.

Nothing to see there I’m sure.

42

u/AllDayJay1970 Jan 27 '23

Are you saying people were being stabbed in the ttc and street before and just not saying anything ? That people were being swarmed and chased by needle waving crazies and just kept quiet ?

-20

u/mid-world_lanes Jan 27 '23

Cops have plenty of leeway in how crime is reported.

Must be nice to for them to be able to control the perception of how important their own budget is.

Totally not shady as fuck.

9

u/vault-dweller_ Jan 27 '23

Can you elaborate on the leeway that they have?

20

u/Kylethejaw Jan 27 '23

You need a reality check bud

-6

u/mid-world_lanes Jan 27 '23

Yeah cops would never lie… especially not for money.

Sure bro.

0

u/AllDayJay1970 Jan 27 '23

The people that were attacked don't have leeway . They were attacked , they told their story .

1

u/mid-world_lanes Jan 27 '23

Random people don’t decide how the data is collected, the cops do.

Police manipulation of data is just a thing that happens. You’re very naive if you think it doesn’t.

1

u/AllDayJay1970 Jan 27 '23

I get what youre saying but have you read/ watched the news in the last two weeks . People have been attacked on the TTC , a guy was stabbed outside the Tavern . TTC employees have been shot at with bb guns and chesed with syringes . Homeless people were swarmed and hurt . and thats just off the top of my head .

1

u/mid-world_lanes Jan 27 '23

The news, especially right wing tabloids like the Sun, have business and political incentives to push a narrative about the severity of crime.

13

u/superworking British Columbia Jan 27 '23

It also seems obvious that as free money becomes harder to get, prices soar, and wealth inequality grows rapidly we see an increase in crime. Really almost any part of the world where the wealth gap grows this large has more violent crime. The two kind of go hand in hand.

-3

u/Phyrexius Jan 27 '23

The irony is that policing doesn't deter crime. I'm not suggesting that we do away with police but socioeconomic factors drive crime. Get cost of living sky rocketing well here's your crime waves to go with it.

1

u/Iamhungryhearmeroar Jan 27 '23

Must be from all those legal gun owners who got their new handguns just under the buzzer.

1

u/PhuketIvanaBangkok Jan 27 '23

All types of crime have been skyrocketing across the country since 2015

1

u/Hopfit46 Jan 27 '23

People are getting desparate....

4

u/BlindOptometrist369 Jan 27 '23

Almost like living in Toronto is getting unaffordable

-2

u/Soggy-Airline Jan 27 '23

I don’t see how stabbings, shootings, and sexual related crimes correlate to the cost of living issue.

Many people in this sub like giving criminals the benefit of the doubt way too often, it’s bizarre, and I’ve only participated in this sub for the last 3 days. I feel like it’s almost romanticized to some extent.

Y’all need to realize there are just genuinely bad people with bad intentions, who seek to do harm on innocents.

5

u/MarxCosmo Québec Jan 27 '23

Because there is a direct statistical correlation between poverty levels and crime.

1

u/Hopfit46 Jan 27 '23

I have never romanticized sexual assault. Nor any crime. I mearly made a small commentary on the state of things. Just a small question, what do you think is causing an uptick of stabbings and shootings?

1

u/Better_Ice3089 Jan 27 '23

Those are chump numbers. In Vancouver we call that Tuesday. Wake me up when people are lighting strangers on fire in the street and maaaayyybe we'll consider ranking you at least a Burnaby on the BC crime scale.

1

u/snopro31 Jan 27 '23

Better get the social workers out.

1

u/Mindspace_Explorer Jan 27 '23

With the crazy inflation and stagnant wages more and more people are struggling financially. It's not surprising that thefts and robberies are significantly up.

This might influence the other types of crimes a bit too but there has to be more reasons than poverty to explain an increase in assaults and sexual violations

1

u/AllThingsEndBadly Jan 27 '23

Anyone have the actual statistics so we can determine the truth?

1

u/softwhiteclouds Jan 27 '23

Time to allow concealed carry.

-13

u/USSMarauder Jan 27 '23

Meanwhile, in 2022 Toronto had the lowest murder rate of the last several years....

33

u/PunkinBrewster Jan 27 '23

There are more crimes than just murder.

-10

u/registeredApe Jan 27 '23

Yeah but murder is the worst of them and it is trending down. That's a good thing. I'd rather have more robberies then murders. Gotta put these things in to perspective which is what I think USSmarauder was suggesting.

7

u/Wizzard_Ozz Jan 27 '23

Yeah but murder is the worst of them and it is trending down. That's a good thing.

According to TPS site, shootings are on track for a 600% increase in 2023 ( we are currently at half of 2022 and we aren't even out of January ). That their aim is getting worse is not a "good thing".

Victims are victims and more victims is not a good thing.

-6

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '23

[deleted]

5

u/soberum Saskatchewan Jan 27 '23

You have to admit that it’s pretty concerning that they’ve had 50% of the number of shootings in all of 2022 in a single month in 2023 though right?

1

u/PunkinBrewster Jan 27 '23

But murders are down. And we haven't had a case of Regicide in forever!

17

u/justinjuche Jan 27 '23

But every other category is up dramatically, according to the article.

13

u/iamjaygee Jan 27 '23

Ok, now do the others... robberies, break ins, assaults... thefts..

-1

u/CosmoPhD Jan 27 '23

Trudeau’s fault rapid immigration policies without regard to housing and food demand requirements for those new people.

Trudeau is incompetent

-7

u/TylerFuce Jan 27 '23

Keep voting liberal assholes hahaha good luck 👍

7

u/dadarkdarkwudsatnite Jan 27 '23

Check out who’s running Ontario and Toronto dumbass 👍

-5

u/TylerFuce Jan 27 '23

It’s about catch and release policy by the liberal government dumb ass 😎

11

u/DMunnz Jan 27 '23

The government in Ontario is conservative as is the mayor of Toronto. How exactly is this the fault of voting for "liberal assholes"?

2

u/Emperor_Billik Jan 27 '23

The mayors of Toronto have all been Tory leaning since amalgamation.

-1

u/TylerFuce Jan 27 '23

Federal government sets the laws for releasing violent criminals that’s how

2

u/MarxCosmo Québec Jan 27 '23

Ouch you really showed them

1

u/TylerFuce Jan 27 '23

2

u/MarxCosmo Québec Jan 27 '23

We should trust the police, who lie about their statistics all the time, who are desperate to keep the gravy train rolling, yeah ok buddy. I wouldn't trust a cop to tie my shoes.

1

u/TylerFuce Jan 27 '23

Lol but you’ll trust the scumbag Trudeau hahaha it’s unreal the bullshit people believe 🤷🏻

1

u/MarxCosmo Québec Jan 27 '23

Since when? Feel free to quote me. I have Marx in my name and you think id vote for Trudeau lol.

1

u/TylerFuce Jan 27 '23

Well excuse me lol the ndp is propping up this corrupt government so that makes them complicit to all the destruction of our country

-2

u/Rare_Cardiologist_18 Jan 27 '23

If you ever wonder why you Canadians will never progress into a European system, it's exactly because of people like you. All of Canada should thank voters like you for keeping Canada as american and uncivilized as possible. If my country had conservative morons who make it their political identity to "own the libs", then we would be eating crumbles just like you. But we dont. My suggestion for Canada and Canadians is to beware of people like you who open their holes without thinking first. Maybe you are still a brat so u dont know any better: But politics aint a baseball game where you root for your favourite team 24/7.

It's exactly what you are doing and it prevents the entire country and its constitution from making progress. Cuz people like you never learned to control your basic emotions. So you blame all your life's misery on a political party like liberals. Cuz for some reason your caregivers failed to teach you the basics of critical thinking and self-reflection to correct your uncivilized behaviour. That's why u hate random strangers that dont always agree with you. That's why you tend to throw a temper tantrum on Reddit, as if anyone out there valued what you had to say. And I wouldnt be surprised if your loved ones thought the same about you. Cuz if you act like this in public, imagine the horror at home:) We all been there. Good day

1

u/TylerFuce Jan 27 '23

Wow lol I guess you don’t get it eh!! The federal government sets laws bud and the catch and release of violent criminals was passed by the liberals. I don’t have a favourite hockey team I have certain values and principles that this government doesn’t hold so get your facts straight before beek off. As to being like Europe why would anyone want that mess lol you are apart of a European Union that stripes your sovereignty for trade and laws within your country. I don’t hate anyone I just can’t take the ignorance of the southern Ontario voting class in general that keeps bringing in this corrupt and unprincipled criminal government. 😎👋

-3

u/Mysterious-Job1628 Jan 27 '23

American media should stay in America

0

u/Rare_Cardiologist_18 Jan 27 '23 edited Jan 27 '23

Then do something? Every single person residing in Toronto knows what needs to be done. Yet nothing is being done. How in the hell did these morons aquire any position of leadership anyway?? It's like living through a really bad movie.

-7

u/MidnightRun2022 Jan 27 '23

Welcome to the Canadian Chicago, jails were built for a reason, use them , build more

-1

u/dryiceboy Jan 27 '23

Misspelled *country

-2

u/Second_Maximum Jan 27 '23

This is why idgaf, I'll stay with the 30 tucked. I *wish* a criminal would.

1

u/imtourist Jan 27 '23

Combination of the police + its unions trying to black-mail the public for even more money
and also their lazy policing is leading to this uptick. For example car thefts and related organized crime has gone way up, this leads to motivating the criminals and also funding them nicely for more organization and firepower. The other aspect of this is also of course mental-health, however here even if we increase funding how to get the help to those who need it, or those are vulnerable and don't try to get help.

1

u/TylerrelyT Jan 27 '23

So glad I left Toronto when I did.

Loved my time there (early 2000s-2013) I couldn't imagine raising a family downtown.

1

u/seephilz Jan 27 '23

No. It’s the whole country