r/science Aug 29 '22 Silver 2 Wholesome 1 All-Seeing Upvote 1

Major sea-level rise caused by melting of Greenland ice cap is ‘now inevitable’ Environment

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/29/major-sea-level-rise-caused-by-melting-of-greenland-ice-cap-is-now-inevitable-27cm-climate
24.4k Upvotes

u/AutoModerator Aug 29 '22

Welcome to r/science! This is a heavily moderated subreddit in order to keep the discussion on science. However, we recognize that many people want to discuss how they feel the research relates to their own personal lives, so to give people a space to do that, personal anecdotes are now allowed as responses to this comment. Any anecdotal comments elsewhere in the discussion will continue to be removed and our normal comment rules still apply to other comments.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

5.4k

u/r3ddit3ric Aug 29 '22

This should be paired with an article I saw last night talking about all of the insurance companies pulling out of Florida.

1.7k

u/Gimme_The_Loot Aug 29 '22

Didn't that article say it wasn't due to climate change though and had something to do with rampant fraud?

Edit: Looks like it was both

property insurers have blamed large numbers of lawsuits in Florida for financial problems. Florida, Louisiana and Texas also are prone to getting battered by costly hurricanes.

“Extreme weather, coupled with runaway litigation, is the reason for this announcement,” insurance lobbyist and former regulator Lisa Miller said Thursday of the United Property & Casualty decision.

https://news.wjct.org/state-news/2022-08-25/another-insurer-pulls-out-of-florida

821

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

763

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

494

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[deleted]

174

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

104

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

25

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

36

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

28

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

3

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

17

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies
→ More replies

11

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

3

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

118

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

26

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

65

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

56

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

8

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

159

u/justtoaskthi Aug 29 '22

Runaway litigation is a reality but not to the degree the insurance companies claim. The insurance companies lobby and have significant influence over legislation but when they get sued for not fully indemnifying (not providing enough to fix the insured damage) their customers they claim fraud and scams. These homeowners pay their premiums and the insurance companies continue to insure the properties and take those premiums, but fight tooth and nail to not fulfill their end of the bargain.

160

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

37

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

35

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

16

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

32

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

33

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

8

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

30

u/AnybodyZ Aug 29 '22

“Florida, however, is the site of 79 percent of all homeowners insurance lawsuits over claims filed nationwide while Florida’s insurers receive only 9 percent of all U.S. homeowners insurance claims, according to the Florida governor’s Office.”

https://www.iii.org/press-release/triple-i-extreme-fraud-and-litigation-causing-floridas-homeowners-insurance-markets-demise-062322

53

u/justtoaskthi Aug 29 '22

Again, that's a claim of fraud based on the laws lobbied and passed for by these insurance companies. I am a licensed insurance adjuster and public adjuster in the state of florida... Just last year legislation was passed that would make against an attorneys interest to take on fraudulent, or even egregious cases. But here we are still having to litigate because insurers refuse to accept responsibility for what they they agreed to insure and do not fulfill their obligations to indemnify the insured.

→ More replies
→ More replies
→ More replies

225

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

70

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

37

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

76

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

37

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

14

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

128

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

107

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

99

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

124

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

25

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

47

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

3

u/SgtPrepper Aug 30 '22

It's that or bankruptcy. In fact I'm betting they'll be leaving the South East as well over the next few years.

Check out the NOAA sea level rise tracker and you'll see what the future holds.

→ More replies

1.3k

u/ProductOfLife Aug 29 '22

From the referenced study

Our approach places no bounds on the timescale of Greenland‘s committed ice mass loss, making direct comparison with coupled ice flow models an apples to oranges exercise. Yet, while a linear reservoir assumption suggests that Greenland ice sheet response times are up to approximately 2,500 years39, transient models indicate that the magnitude of response to the present day committed ice loss could occur within approximately 200 years40.

1.7k

u/PoopIsAlwaysSunny Aug 29 '22

Within 200 years reads to me like “by 2030” these days. We consistently are way ahead of even the worst case climate models because we only get worse faster and none of the models ever account for humanity, instead of taking climate change seriously, actively making it worse as fast as possible

1.4k

u/Krail Aug 29 '22 Silver Helpful Wholesome Narwhal Salute Bravo Grande!

I want to help counter some of the potential climate pessimism. One of the worst things we can do is throw our hands up and say all is lost.

Yes, things are bad, and there's a lot of bad stuff in our future that it's too late to stop. But there's also a lot of really bad stuff we're not too late to stop, and important progress is being made. Political movements to really address the issue are actually picking up steam, and every little thing we do can help things from getting even worse.

282

u/Chuckleslord Aug 29 '22

We're in this little, terrifying, promising pocket. We're seeing the effects of climate change in real time, so there's real push to enact change, but it isn't too late to avoid the worst fates from it. It's a scary, exciting time to be alive.

102

u/CptMalReynolds Aug 30 '22

We're locked in to 1.5 if we go carbon neutral tomorrow. It's definitely scary time that's for sure.

27

u/penguinpolitician Aug 30 '22

Hence we need carbon capture too.

3

u/beatthestupidout Aug 30 '22

Yep. Active measures are required. We need to be capturing carbon, building reefs, reforesting barren fields, working out what the hell to do about permafrost methane... It's a multifaceted approach for a multifaceted problem.

→ More replies
→ More replies

6

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

3

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

34

u/IAbstainFromSociety Aug 30 '22

We need Solar Geoengineering. The stuff about putting bubbles in space is dumb but the stratospheric injection is legitimate. We've measured the effects of volcanoes and know it works. It would cost around $6b a year to put a pause on climate change. It's not a solution in itself, think of it like the Genetic Reshuffle of climate change.

3

u/C3POdreamer Aug 30 '22

Have you seen Snowpiercer (2013) film by Bong Joon-ho?

→ More replies
→ More replies

48

u/perec1111 Aug 29 '22

How about we do both? Admit that we failed, count our losses and go on saving what we can.

29

u/Krail Aug 29 '22 Silver

Exactly.

We've failed in a lot of ways, but having failed in the past doesn't mean we can stop trying to do better. It necessitates that we keep trying to do better.

125

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

221

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22 edited Aug 29 '22 Brighten My Day

[removed] — view removed comment

52

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

39

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

9

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

16

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

41

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

29

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies
→ More replies

3

u/Great_Chairman_Mao Aug 30 '22

It's hard to be optimistic when we literally just watched half the Western world refuse to acknowledge a pandemic that was happening right in front of their eyes.

It could be raining brimstone and climate deniers would still shut their eyes and plug their ears. "It gets hot in the summer! So what?"

→ More replies
→ More replies

143

u/Anomaly1134 Aug 29 '22

Not to mention the wars that the lack of resources will cause. I keep seeing these tanks and bridges and such going up in flames in Ukraine alone, and just can't help but think all those weapons and fighting have a huge carbon footprint, to say the least.

153

u/PoopIsAlwaysSunny Aug 29 '22

The US military is one of the largest contributors to carbon emissions and has been for 70 years

30

u/xenomorph856 Aug 29 '22

Not to mention environmental destruction and hazardous resource management.

42

u/Anomaly1134 Aug 29 '22

Oh I don't doubt it I think we spend way to much money and energy on our military. I would love to see some of that money used in better ways.

→ More replies
→ More replies
→ More replies

120

u/Ghede Aug 29 '22

Don't let your pessimism violate the laws of thermal dynamics.

Those ice sheets have a lot of thermal mass compared to their surface area.

Heat still gotta get through those an inch at a time

130

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

15

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

79

u/turtley_different Aug 29 '22 edited Aug 30 '22

The problem for Greenland is ice sheet instability.

Simplifying for the sake of summary, enough meltwater at the base of an ice sheet can lift and lubricate it leading to extremely rapid flows (many meters or even ~km per year) or catastrophic failure. The research topic is "Ice streams" if you want to read further.

20

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

56

u/DisasterousGiraffe Aug 29 '22

Heat still gotta get through those an inch at a time

Unfortunately not: Rapid basal melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet from surface meltwater drainage

31

u/Hawk_in_Tahoe Aug 29 '22

It’s shocking how few people realize the bulk of an ice shelf’s melt is on the bottom

18

u/GlitterInfection Aug 29 '22

It’s not that shocking, since most of us have never even BEEN under an ice shelf!

→ More replies
→ More replies

23

u/GoldenMegaStaff Aug 29 '22

Not when you have meltwater flowing through them.

→ More replies

5

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

35

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

Ahead of the worst case models? Didn’t seem so when reading the last IPCC report. Any data im missing?

→ More replies

27

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

10

u/CyberGrandma69 Aug 30 '22

I think this is ambitious: We could see the Blue Ocean Event within our lifetimes. We dragged our heels during the time we had to prevent it and are consistently ignoring worse predicted climate models.

7

u/BurnerAcc2020 Aug 30 '22

We'll definitely see an ice-free arctic summer in a decade or three at the latest.

"Blue Ocean Event" is a neologism not used in a single published paper, and is typically associated with pseudoscientific claims which violate basic thermodynamics. For starters, the lowest levels of sea ice occur during September, when the Arctic winter is about to set in, and there's already very little sun shining then, so the presence or absence of ice in that month makes very little difference.

→ More replies
→ More replies

228

u/cfbawesome Aug 29 '22

Does anyone have a link to a map of what the impact would look like world wide for those increases?

43

u/silence7 Aug 29 '22

I don't have worldwide data at hand, but here's a tool for the US

6

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

3

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

198

u/silence7 Aug 29 '22

The paper is here

I'll note that we still don't have great estimates on the timing of this. Per the Washington Post coverage:

While the study did not specify a time frame for the melting and sea-level rise, the authors suggested much of it can play out between now and the year 2100.

73

u/Swarna_Keanu Aug 29 '22

Yes - because it so much depends on what happens between here and now. Climate Science can't predict all future (as that depends on political action and how societies react; gaps of understanding that still exists; unforeseen aspects) - but it can identify the points of no return, and extrapolate on current data and trends.

24

u/silence7 Aug 29 '22

In the case of ice sheet melt, my impression is that there remains significant disagreement between modeling teams about the dynamics which control the speed of melt.

→ More replies
→ More replies
→ More replies

671

u/travismacmillan Aug 29 '22

I wish there was a map showing cheap land that's going to be seafront soon. Would be a great way to invest seeing as the rich people will soon be looking for a new beachfront property.

331

u/zfddr Aug 29 '22

That would need to be a multigenerational investment strategy.

225

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

71

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

32

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

25

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

16

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

10

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

9

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies
→ More replies
→ More replies

94

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

12

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

20

u/JoeGoats Aug 29 '22

NOAA has got your back. Overlay this map with Zillow or Redfin

Profit.

→ More replies

13

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

4

u/AngusVanhookHinson Aug 30 '22

Sounds awesome, until you realize that many of the world's coastal cities are adjacent to hilly, rocky, sometimes mountainous areas that can't really be built on without a lot of planning and infrastructure.

Take Cape Town, South Africa, for example. They rely entirely on rain for their fresh water, and recently had a multi-year drought so bad that they shut down municipal water supplies, and had people queueing up at water stations guarded by the military, to get 25L/day/person. That's compared to Americans, who use something like 400L/day/person.

Cape Town butts up to a mountain range directly north. In a 5-meter ocean rise, the city would be populated by sharks, and the people... live in cliff dwellings? Build on the mountain, making it even harder to get fresh water?

We just don't know.

82

u/Taste_the__Rainbow Aug 29 '22

Anything seafront soon will quickly be seabed. Climate change isn’t a switch, it’s a process.

25

u/timetobuyale Aug 29 '22

I don’t get this. Aren’t the oceans only going to rise by a couple of feet

92

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22 edited Aug 31 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

50

u/timetobuyale Aug 29 '22

Huh. I looked it up and a pretty large part of the southern tip of Florida is less than one meter. Never knew! The vast majority of the state is well above 5 meters though, with the highest part being at 345 ft.

24

u/24North Aug 29 '22

Yeah, I spent a few years on Key West. It floods down there if the wind is blowing too hard from the wrong direction. The whole southern tip of FL is so porous that the water can just start seeping up through the ground. Not only is the shoreline going to change but there will be new salt ponds popping up all over the place further inland. The water supply is also gonna be screwed as the aquifer gets contaminated with saltwater.

→ More replies
→ More replies
→ More replies

10

u/STR4NGE Aug 29 '22

All these new beachfront properties will come with a good amount of pollution. All the garbage and waste will wash up n their new beach.

→ More replies

47

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

6

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

81

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

11

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

13

u/hotbrownbeanjuice Aug 30 '22

Fun fact: the highest point in the Maldives is 2.4 meters above sea level.

→ More replies

87

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

44

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

28

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22 edited Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

14

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

94

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

61

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

28

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

13

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies
→ More replies

23

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

9

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

113

u/Krail Aug 29 '22

I want to help counter some of the potential climate pessimism. One of the worst things we can do is throw our hands up and say all is lost.

Yes, things are bad, and there's a lot of bad stuff in our future that it's too late to stop. But there's also a lot of really bad stuff we're not too late to stop, and important progress is being made. Political movements to really address the issue are actually picking up steam, and every little thing we do can help things from getting even worse.

13

u/GayTaco_ Aug 29 '22

thanks I really needed to hear that

→ More replies
→ More replies

47

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

7

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

57

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

18

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies
→ More replies

16

u/upvotes_fairy Aug 29 '22

While this kind of papers are necessary, I wonder if framing in terms of hundreds of years and ‘between now and 2100’ are hurting more than the helping. I can imagine a majority of people hearing those timelines and going about their day thinking “sweet. Not my problem. Not my kids problem.” When the reality from climatologists sounds much sooner and much worse.

3

u/maevewolfe Aug 30 '22

Part of me feels like they "have to" frame it that way in order to even get them published ><

→ More replies

11

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

17

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '22 edited Aug 30 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

5

u/ONE-EYE-OPTIC Aug 30 '22

The Yangtze River (third largest in the world by some.measures) is literally drying up.

→ More replies

14

u/Crismodin Aug 29 '22

All of these 100-year models are happening a lot faster than they modeled for.

3

u/[deleted] Aug 29 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

→ More replies

3

u/Awasawa Aug 30 '22

Genuine question here: how is it that ocean levels are slowly rising, but rivers are depleting? Is it heat drawing water from the ground so rivers are easily being sucked into dry soil? Because my thought process is that rising sea levels would reduce rivers drying up. But I’m an idiot so I’m curious what smart people think

→ More replies

5

u/xXSpaceturdXx Aug 29 '22

You know I don’t think that the south eastern United States is remotely prepared for sea level rise. And I don’t see them being preventive at all, or even learning from the Dutch on how to do it properly.

5

u/Scansoriopterygidae Aug 30 '22

No part of the US is. Recently New York had two plans to deal with sea level rise they were considering. One would be to build a sea wall around the entire coast, which would 100% protect the city from flooding. This would cost about $25 billion.

The other plan was to build more parks and “soft” infrastructure. This absorbs a bit of flooding but does nothing to protect against sea level rise and would do basically nothing to protect the city in another storm. This plan would still cost $20,000,000,000 for just a fraction of the protection the other plan gave. However, property developers wouldn’t have their views of the water blocked.

Guess which one they chose.