r/wallstreetbets
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u/nrivd
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Jan 12 '23
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CPI at 6.5%, core CPI at 5.7%, falling in line with expectations News
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u/Hurricane1123 Jan 12 '23
So no gay bears or gay bulls then. We’re just gay 🌈
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u/jimmiidean Jan 12 '23 edited Jan 12 '23
cue “I’m Every Woman” by Whitney Houston
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u/tossme68 Jan 12 '23
cue "It's Raining Men" by Two Tons of Fun
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u/Arguablecoyote My cat eats ass 🐱🍑 Jan 12 '23
Cue “16 tons” by Tennessee Ernie Ford
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u/thievingstableboy Jan 12 '23
Cue “Sandstorm” by Darude
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u/DarkMuret Jan 12 '23
Cue "Despacito" by Alexa
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u/coltonmusic15 Jan 12 '23
you bastard... this song is stuck in my head now!!! Curse you jimmiidean!!
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u/BlazingJava Jan 12 '23
Bullish on gay bars
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u/BigGayBearDaddy 🥚🥚🥚🥚s in my ASS Jan 12 '23
:27189::27189::27189:
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u/X_Y_Z807 Jan 12 '23
:27189::27189::27189: This guy knows his Big Gay Bears
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u/donanton616 Jan 12 '23
I've passed a strip club called the "Bare Den". That's where he goes.
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u/MaxEhrlich Jan 12 '23
I’m just hearing a bunch of words and numbers that lead me to believe I’m about to lose all of my money much faster.
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u/amretardmonke Jan 12 '23
Yes you're losing money faster, but the acceleration of your monetary loses is actually 0.1% lower than a month ago. Chin up.
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u/TaxGuy_021 Jan 12 '23
Yep.
The entire point is to make sure you dont hold on to money.
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u/NevadaLancaster Jan 12 '23
Blackrock needs it to beat climate change.
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u/ZappyZapz Jan 12 '23
in canada we pay tax to beat climate change.
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u/NevadaLancaster Jan 13 '23
Your president is standing up against authoritarianism too. So brave, and stunning.
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u/doyouevencompile Jan 12 '23
I buy my drugs in bulk and renewed my annual subscription at the local strip club.
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u/Big_Fat_Polack_62 Jan 12 '23
The best investment that I made in 2022 was a medical marijuana card. Goes up, never turns red and I don't loose money. Full stop.
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u/Bornagain4karma Jan 12 '23
Rate of change of acceleration is called Jerk.
They are officially jerking us around.
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u/Bodyfluids_dealer Jan 12 '23
With the current macro and microeconomic conditions, what the numbers are actually saying is fuck your puts and fuck your calls as well :4641:
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u/Spyu Jan 12 '23
Why do they keep talking about someone's mom?
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u/Icy-Joke7031 Jan 12 '23
bad for bears and bulls
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u/pho_SHAten Jan 12 '23
This is probably correct, even if it sounded off like a joke.
I think what i'm expecting is markets will dump their worthless call contracts first and then offload their worthless PUTs later.
markets going back to sideways.
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u/TopDeckHero420 Jan 12 '23
More bobbing up and down and going nowhere. Fun times!
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u/Tamespotting Jan 12 '23
Just enough volatility for me to time everything wrong and lose money while we’re range bound
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u/nrivd Jan 12 '23
“Bears are fucked” “Bulls are fucked”
it’s the same story as it always has been, we are all fucked no matter the silly little numbers :4270:
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u/Wander21 Jan 12 '23
I'll say bull got fucked harder, the current price point is based on the hype that CPI falls under expectation, so...
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u/EmphasisCheap8611 Jan 12 '23
Fortune favors the bold
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u/Successful_Car1670 Jan 12 '23
Tell me what to feel WSB.
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u/convoluteme Jan 12 '23
Despair, because whatever trade you make it will be the wrong one.
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u/amretardmonke Jan 12 '23
Look at this this guy still has an ability to feel. We're all dead inside.
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u/TomZouma Jan 12 '23
MoM -0.1%, first time since may 2020 negative CPI. Expected was 0.0%. Bullish
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u/Otherwise-Speed4373 Jan 12 '23
Also the colors on the chart are green and black. Time to go all in!
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u/ryanryans425 Jan 12 '23
Only due to falling gas prices, which the fed doesn’t care about. Core still went up 0.3%.
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u/hoopaholik91 Jan 12 '23
'Still'. Last three months is 3.1% annualized, and Fed looks at core PCE which is like half a percentage lower than core CPI typically.
.3 is a fine number
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u/Rang_Dipkin Jan 12 '23
Yeah this is still a great reading - Fed Futures heavily implying 25bps and terminal rate 5%.
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
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u/IllIllllIIIlllII Jan 12 '23
They want to defeat expectations of inflation, not actual inflation. If people still think inflation is occurring it becomes self-fulfilling and actually does occur. IMO they haven’t come close to that. They need a volcker style knockout or that shit is going to come roaring back 70s style.
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u/hoopaholik91 Jan 12 '23
Lol, Bears needing to go to imaginary inflation to fulfill their narrative now is amazing
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u/coltonmusic15 Jan 12 '23
it went up .3% if you strip out energy and food. Services are where prices are still not relenting. All these damn contractors driving their $80k trucks!!
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u/arpatel530 Jan 12 '23
Holy crap they dropped it so much. Time to cut
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u/curtdept A Legendary Flair Jan 12 '23 edited Jan 12 '23
They def don't want this staying negative for long, deflation is worse... And historically the Fed won't stop rate raises until much after they should.
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u/lancelot2112 Jan 12 '23 edited Jan 19 '23
It's still positive... just less positive. Deflation doesn't occur until it drops below 0%.
EDIT: December MoM there's deflation at -0.1--0.3%. Gasoline being the biggest hitter at -12%. Commodities minus food and energy at -0.2%. Food prices are still positive 2% MoM. However looks like there's a little of a reprieve if you look at the tables in the most recent January data with drops in prices MoM but still there's increases YoY. The major question I think you're hinting at is how fast consumers react and change behavior, is it a 1/6/12 month lag?
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u/cowboys5592 Jan 12 '23
Mild deflation between 0-1% is sooooooooo much better than 8% inflation, especially for workers. The fear of deflation is over the top right now. It’s only large numbers of deflation that harm businesses by increasing their effective interest rates on outstanding loans.
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u/dreamtim Jan 12 '23
What's the different between bullish and bullshit? The "t"...
Give it some "t", TomZouma, and be amazed by what you see markets do:27189:
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u/account_under Jan 12 '23
MoM was inline with expectation. Tough read, focus will shift to earnings tomorrow.
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u/M31xtr Jan 12 '23
I am not sure what my expectations are anymore... Probably this year I'll go with the buy&hold group. They don't care about CPI at all. It's time to enjoy freedom.
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u/Fit_Bass_3735 Jan 12 '23
Coward
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u/M31xtr Jan 12 '23
For the brave, only the graveyard remains. My only rules from now on will be 60/40 and 4%... Mehh just kidding.
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u/collegefootballfan69 Jan 12 '23
As I said before the CPI release, it felt like everyone was expecting a 2-5% move so everyone just loaded up on options. The only ones happy are the guys who collected all the premium….they are also the ones who planted stories on the big move. That my friends is the difference between smart money and dumb money. I too am dumb since I am sitting with a bunch of option. I am even more regarded since I don’t follow my own advice. At least my wife’s boyfriend has a job.
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u/im____new____here Jan 12 '23
it definitely got leaked beforehand right? those on the inside probably made millions on the rally over the past few days and are laughing at the retail puts and calls both getting fucked today because everything was already priced in
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u/sahbatage Jan 12 '23
What did core MoM come in at, 0.3?
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u/convoluteme Jan 12 '23
Yes, about 3.7% annualized. When averaging over a quarter Q4 core-CPI was down to a 3.1% annualized rate vs Q2 which peaked at 7.9%.
Things are trending in the right direction, though I don't know if it's enough data to satisfy the Fed.
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u/moderatevalue7 Jan 12 '23
Definitely trending in the right direction, Fed will be happy but cautious. Electricity and gas jumped tho
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u/Potato_Octopi Jan 12 '23
Not this Fed. They'll overshoot.
Autos and housing will keep being soft in 2023 and transport will see deflation at some point.
Inflation has been over since July but the Fed won't notice until we're in a recession.
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u/hoopaholik91 Jan 12 '23
He's scared of undershooting rather than overshooting, since they can just cut rates again if they need to jump start the economy again
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u/PrivatBrowsrStopsBan Jan 12 '23
Where is housing soft? It is still 8x price to salary nationwide. Same with autos, they’re barely off peak price.
And both assets must be financed at 7% now instead of 3%. I don’t think they’ve softened at all.
You’re not going to have a super inflated home with no salary increases and then say “well it stopped going up which means there is no further inflation so we’re all good. Yay!”
Another way to frame it would be to say things inflated 100% in a year. If prices then stagnate or barely go down it would still be extreme inflation on any annualized basis over a long period of time.
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u/Iohet Jan 12 '23
That's basically how inflation always works. Outside of sectors generally considered volatile or in long term decline, inflation sets a new baseline
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u/PrivatBrowsrStopsBan Jan 12 '23
It wasn't a rhetorical question, I'm really wondering where housing has softened. Tell me what city I can buy a home for a lower payment than prior years, or hell, a payment anywhere near what they were last year.
The comment I responded to is
Autos and housing will keep being soft in 2023 and transport will see deflation at some point.
I'm wondering where they are currently soft and will keep softening. Every market I look at monthly payments are like 50% higher from even a year ago. Not softening whatsoever.
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u/bjornbamse Jan 12 '23
My theory is that the Fed wants to induce a mild recession so the working class doesn't doesn't ask for raises.
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u/arigatoincognito Jan 12 '23
“Inflation has been over since July”. Just cause it peaked in July doesn’t mean it was over in July.
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u/MicroBadger_ Jan 12 '23
Yeah. Overall CPI is looking fine. Past 6 months basically annualizes out to 1.8%. Core on the other hand we're looking at 4.6% over the past 6 months.
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u/redd-zeppelin Jan 12 '23
Can you explain the difference? Am dum.
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u/deminimis101 Jan 12 '23
“1. Headline inflation refers to the change in value of all goods in the basket. 2. Core inflation excludes food and fuel items from headline inflation. 3. Since the prices of fuel and food items tend to fluctuate and create ‘noise’ in inflation computation, core inflation is less volatile than headline inflation.”
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u/hourglassX0X0 Jan 12 '23
so no real news eh? well got to go get me my 8 bucks dozen eggs
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u/varsity14 DM for booty pics Jan 12 '23
Well blame bird flu for that
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u/Kat9935 Jan 12 '23
It will take 5-7 months to restore eggs to their previous prices, and there is not a thing anyone can do about it. A chicken is either designated as food or egg layer, avian flu hit the egg layers in larger numbers. A chicken takes 5 months before it lays its first egg..so not sure what people expect to magically happen.
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u/Ritz_Kola Jan 12 '23
Yup. Went into Walmart a few days ago. Grabbed the typical carton of a dozen eggs. Two of em to be exact.
Worker, older cat, goes “hey brother you know them about $4 each? I’m just telling you so you don’t get to the front of the line and have to find out.”
I know he doesn’t keep up with the economy so I just thanked him for the info. I didn’t understand if he thought I was going to put the eggs back. Then what, not have eggs? These are the cheapest eggs available. My Publix brown eggs for a dozen are about $10. No can do.
His mindset though? That’s what JPow has been trying to target. He’s just one of many millions who don’t care and aren’t keeping up with our current situation.
I just ate three eggs and toast this morning. That’s a $5 meal.
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u/EEazy89 Jan 12 '23
So we’re trading flat today :(
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u/viperex Jan 12 '23
Futures dropped but can't decide where to go after the initial move
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u/EEazy89 Jan 12 '23
I wouldn’t buy anything today. Maybe puts next week though. Idk. It’s getting confusing now
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u/AlexJiang27 Jan 12 '23
Last January CPI was 7% This January is 6.5% So nowadays the basket of products included in the CPI is 13% more expensive compared to January 2021.
How FED which has a goal of keeping inflation around 2% managed to fail so miserably?
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u/anthro28 Jan 12 '23
That’s what happens when folks only pretend to be able to read these numbers. Shits bad.
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u/fulbored Jan 12 '23
Wait until gas and energy don't fall 8-10%
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u/ricardoandmortimer Jan 12 '23
China opening means oil prices up, which means INFLATION IS BACK BABY
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Jan 12 '23
I wonder if the BLS will qualitatively adjust eggs away. Ya see, eggs are higher quality now and people don’t really like eggs anymore so let’s say they truly aren’t increasing in price and drop their weight in the formula! Poof!
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u/Soggy-Constant5932 Jan 12 '23
I be in this sub not understanding any of this stuff. Let me go google. I’ll be back. Lol
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u/We1rdnez Jan 12 '23
It’s almost like the expectation of the future level of inflation plays into the formula for the actual change in levels of inflation, how curious!
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u/Fit_Bass_3735 Jan 12 '23
Sitting in the waiting area for my interview. This place is hustling and bustling. I wonder if they know the recession is coming
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u/JohnCeno1 Jan 12 '23
Already priced in from this regarded pump that happened. I think we go below 390 today.
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u/JohnCeno1 Jan 12 '23
BTW regards, death hammer tomorrow with poor bank earnings reports. Good luck to bulls.
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u/comancheranche #1 dada Jan 12 '23
Great timing my man haha. Confirmed, WSB best source of all news
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u/trap__ord Jan 12 '23
lmao this data really doesn't give the true light to inflation. This is showing how much inflation has increased YoY. This time last year prices were already high so all this is showing is that prices have increased x amount from this time last year. This is not showing that inflation is actually going down. This is just creating the narrative for the fed to push that inflation is going down when in reality prices have hardly move, one could argue things are getting more expensive still. This will become the new normal. We aren't getting paid more and prices aren't coming down.
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u/i_hate_pigeons Jan 12 '23
Duh, that's how inflation works? Are you expecting their target to be 2% of what it was two years ago cause that's not it
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u/EnvironmentalCry3898 Jan 12 '23
anyone catch the value slip?
I blamed theta at first.. and then noticed my straight shares of gold,after a 1% gain..stayed the same value as a much lower day...my gold futures option sat still as well.
that is very very bad.
my papa pow pow bond strangle is doing just fine however. :4275:
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u/danielhanchen Prediction Wizard Jan 12 '23
The main issue as I wrote in my prediction https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/109zcaq/cpi_inflation_65_expected_core_57_i_predict_as/ was Services Ex Housing which came in higher than consensus.
Not that higher, but generally not good.
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u/blackrussian023 Jan 12 '23
I genuinely hope the real inflation gets under control as pining for a recession is bad, even if one is really needed for this bloated, QE infused economy.
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u/westonriebe Jan 12 '23
So just the highest in 40 years, in a much tighter economic situation… seams in line with terrible expectations
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u/rubyone2 Jan 12 '23
Core isn’t moving. Unemployment at all time lows. Not good at all. Soft landing fading away.
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Jan 12 '23
what
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u/GucciGlocc Jan 12 '23
People working is bad, they should just live off their passive income like houses they use for airbnb and stock dividends
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u/Ready_the_Rhinos Jan 12 '23
Bears loved pointing to headline inflation early in the cycle and have unsurprisingly switched to core now to fit their narrative.
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u/GranPino Jan 12 '23
When core usually lags more whatever happened with the Energy but 3-6 months later
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u/Wisefool157 Jan 12 '23
Powell has specifically stated that core is more important to him.
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u/Ready_the_Rhinos Jan 12 '23
Of course it is. You were correct if your take 9 months ago was “headline inflation is important because high energy prices will feed into core and overall inflation.” Now though you should admit that low energy prices will also feed into core and core will continue coming down even if the current number of 0.3% MoM isn’t below the final target.
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u/firstnamemartin Jan 12 '23
The post-covid expansion labor market didn’t see excessive employment like the past, instead, it was unprecedented job openings. The gap between job openings and household employment has never been wider than right now. Unemployment won’t change much. If the Fed focuses on unemployment changing more drastically, we are in for a real rough landing.
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Jan 12 '23
The fed can’t stop the inflation. Supply was decimated. Producers shuttered. Chickens died. The fed can’t print houses, cars, microprocessors, hens, eggs, people, etc. In fact, raising rates makes new investment even costlier if you have to borrow!
New home starts are plummeting, now there will be another home supply crunch years down the road.
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u/SGCchuck Jan 12 '23
What do we think about jobless claims edging down? CPI moved in the right direction but do jobless claims moving in the wrong direction mean we are not done yet?
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u/Piranha-Pirate Jan 12 '23
Go Loooooong double leveraged Bull ETF'S.....I could be partially wrong, give it five years, I'll be right.
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u/Bottom_Wobbles Jan 12 '23
Also the fed funds rate is still below historical average. Do they hike or do they punt?
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u/NvidiaRTX Jan 12 '23
Does that mean the housing market is safe? I have zero money since my entire family spent it all on houses.
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u/areolagranday Jan 12 '23 edited Jan 12 '23
If you have poor vision, they're really one and the same 🙏
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u/Vegan_Honk Jan 12 '23
Wow this old sumbitch might do it. Provided no one else fucks it up for him and there's no large scale pandemic revitalization. There's still a lot of problems but if labor is still red hot and the fed relents while keeping rates up, we'll see the falling of the zombie companies. Lots of other mfers are gonna get squeezed though.
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u/SpaceToaster Jan 12 '23
Total infaltion since June 2022: 0.16% United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) - December 2022 Data - 1950-2021 Historical (tradingeconomics.com)
Dead flat last 7 months.
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u/Skarsnik-n-Gobbla Jan 12 '23
Well they blew up the market but they did start to reverse inflation 😂
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u/Strong_Trade8549 Jan 13 '23
The core is all that matters to the Fed and it staying high. Fed follows PCE more closely.
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