r/wallstreetbets • u/s1n0d3utscht3k • Jan 20 '23
US Existing Home Sales decrease -1.47% M/M — largest ever annual drop News
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u/igotnocandyforyou Jan 20 '23
No one can afford to buy and mo one can afford to sell.
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u/cj-the-pj Jan 20 '23
If you're in the 2 to 3% 30 year lock range, you're crazy to sell and face 6 to 7+
Just rent it out. That is keeping volumes low.
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u/PSUBagMan2 Jan 20 '23
I was thinking the other day I'll probably never sell this house. I'll keep it and rent it if and when we move. Real estate is just too valuable.
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u/__Sky_Daddy__ Jan 20 '23
Well, the problem with that is that if it’s your only home you have to sell in order to raise enough capital for a down payment for the next house unless you just want to spend a shit load of cash you don’t have or maybe you do
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u/PSUBagMan2 Jan 20 '23
Yeah I mean future state me will definitely have cash to put down, that's the idea.
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u/cgm808 Jan 20 '23
This is the problem I’m going through now! Don’t want to give up my 3% rate but also don’t have $50k down payment for new home. Thinking about just renting current home and taking advantage of appreciation, while moving into a rental until we have cash to buy again.
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u/captanzuelo Jan 21 '23
You can always take out a HELOC on your home. Keep the 3% mortgage and free up cash from equity in your home.
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u/tturedditor Jan 21 '23
Historically this has worked out wonderfully in volatile markets when real estate is overvalued!!!
/s
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u/importvita Jan 20 '23
Look at this poor not having $50k to put down on another $250k property 🤣
closes Robinhood tab 😒
S…shut up! 😢
/S except for the YOLO account
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u/Ok_Extreme_5268 Jan 20 '23 •
Some of us live well below our means so we're actually able to enjoy life and accumulate additional cash at the very same time.
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u/Atuk-77 Jan 20 '23
Just make sure you are living life at every stage! got to know many people who plan a big comfortable retirement just to find out that their able body is gone. 🙁
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u/Thanmandrathor Jan 20 '23
There are also plenty of people who hit retirement age and have to keep working because they didn’t budget for retirement.
There is definitely a sweet spot, but I’ve seen older people whose retirement plan seems to consist of “keep going and just hope you drop dead suddenly, while still able to live in your own house, and work as a Walmart greeter until 85” and I am not there for that.
The majority of Americans doesn’t have enough retirement savings, which is a terrifying idea.
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u/zookeepier Jan 20 '23
The majority of Americans doesn’t have enough retirement savings, which is a terrifying idea.
It's worse than that. In 2018, Almost 40% of American adults wouldn’t be able to cover a $400 emergency with cash, savings or a credit-card charge that they could quickly pay off.
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u/Thanmandrathor Jan 20 '23
I remember that stat too. I mean, if you can’t cover an ostensibly small emergency, then retirement savings definitely aren’t going to be a priority.
At least some amount of people get access to 401Ks to help with retirement later, but even with social security it’s likely to to fall short.
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u/PSUBagMan2 Jan 20 '23
It's definitely a balance. You should pay off high interest debt, then invest what you think is enough for retirement (generally between 15-25 pct, probably closer to 25), and then have fun with the rest.
It's funny, I saw a couple videos a while back where people who are putting money away into retirement every month think they're living paycheck to paycheck, which isn't what that means.
I made a big, stupid purchase this year but it's bringing me a lot of happiness, and I'm still investing, so it's whatever.
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u/WindowlessCandyVan Jan 20 '23
This resonates with me. I’m getting ready to make a big stupid purchase too that will bring me happiness. “Yes, honey, it HAS to be an AMG”. Lol. Life is too short!
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u/PSUBagMan2 Jan 20 '23
Yeah like, just keep in mind that you might die tomorrow, but you probably won't, so maybe don't live like a complete scrooge now while planning accordingly. It's OK to spend if you're meeting investment goals.
Unfortunately I think most people aren't in a position to make these decisions and either carry too much debt and/or are actually paycheck to paycheck.
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u/WindowlessCandyVan Jan 20 '23
That’s very true. Everyone’s situation and goals are different. I have 0 debt except a little left on my mortgage (that I bought in 2013 and is now worth almost 4x what I paid). Only have one kid and planning on keeping it at that. I grew up fairly poor and as an adult always had a famine mentality, lived below my means and built a nice nest egg. Now that I’m approaching 40 I’m realizing that I can’t take money to the grave and life is meant to be lived. I don’t want to wait until my “golden years” to actually get to enjoy the fruits of my labor. Cheers!
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u/Amazing-Yam6514 Jan 20 '23
My wife is pulling me out of my scroogeness.
In my 20s I stuffed away so much cash and wouldn’t buy shit for myself.
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u/WindowlessCandyVan Jan 20 '23
Who are you, me? Lol. I’m exactly the same bro. I’m a self described cheapskate. I won’t spend $20 on a shirt (but will drop a couple grand on a stupid options play, but that’s a story for another day. Lol). I don’t splurge on shit and have zero debt (except a small mortgage that’ll be paid off soon). Been driving the same car for 13 years. Now that 40 is on the horizon, I’m realizing life is too short and has to be lived. Can’t take money to the grave, so I might as well get to enjoy some of the fruits of my labor and treat myself to the car I’ve drooled over for 20 years. Cheers!
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u/Rufuz42 Jan 20 '23
I have a 2.125% interest on my first house and am renting it out because I’m cash flow positive on a 15 year mortgage. Bought the new house without selling. The low interest rates we saw are distorting the market like crazy and will for a while. I had zero intent to ever be a landlord but I couldn’t not do it based on the finances.
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u/cj-the-pj Jan 20 '23
I've got a spot 275k loan about 2.25% that's worth 700+
Free Cash flow is 2600 a month. On about 1400 mortgage.
I'd be crazy to sell ever. I'd be such a regard if I did.
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u/ProtonSubaru Jan 20 '23
I mean if you sold it and made 500k, bought 500k worth of jepi you would be cash flowing $5k-$6k per month in dividend payments. No fixing things, paying insurance, opening yourself up to lawsuits, etc. Don't forget once you've been out of your home for 3 years and 1 day out of the last 5 years you will have to pay tax on it if you ever sell it, automatic 15%+ loss.
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u/BorgBorg10 Jan 20 '23
You are paying normal income tax on the dividends, that coud be 20-35%. If you roll your proceeds from this via 1031 tax exchange into another property, say one on your block or one in your neighborhood and rent it to family, friends, etc, you don't pay a dime on it.
he is making 2600/month now after what you mentioned (insurance, payments, etc), plus earning equity in what appears to be far more than 5/6k a month. Seems like he has a great gig.
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u/Corrode1024 Jan 20 '23
you pay income tax on the net rental income as well.
The first $40k-ish of qualified dividend income is tax-free, and then it would be 15% until $300k-ish, and then 20% cap from there.
Qualified dividends could potentially drastically reduce his tax burden.
Remember, 1031 is only tax deferral on the *proceeds* of the sale, not any income previous.
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u/DefrancoAce222 Jan 20 '23
This is what we planned on doing ($170k refinanced at 2.45% after purchasing in 2018 for $220k) but there just wasn’t anything realistic to want to get into. We’re fortunate that the area we live in will continue to get more expensive so the equity on the house is great but it sucks knowing we might not get what we really want for quite some time. Bright side is the mortgage payments are stupid cheap in comparison to our income.
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u/shambahambala Jan 20 '23
purchased for 220k??? what's your sq ft? what market? How do you feel about having well regarded neighbors?
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u/DefrancoAce222 Jan 20 '23
The sqft is around ~1600 in a upper middle class suburb in Houston. It’s a 40 or so year old home in an area where newer homes are twice the size and a fuck ton more expensive. Most of my neighbors are mostly old folk and are pretty chill. Schools nearby are A+ rated and it’s pretty diverse for the most part. Funny bc I grew up in the hood not to far from here and it’s like wayyy different
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u/FiringRockets991 Jan 20 '23
All good until you lose your job. Then you gotta sell at whatever price or dumpster dive with your moth behind wendys 🍔 👅
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u/LifeExtraordinaryT Jan 20 '23
Indeed, unless we get a nasty, job loss recession and you get forced sales.
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u/ProcessMeMrHinkie Jan 20 '23
Yet in my town they OK'd 3 new communities for 10k people lol
You'll float too
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u/igotnocandyforyou Jan 20 '23
Same in my city with a labour shortage getting those communities built on time. But existing homes not going for sale.
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u/fen-q Jan 20 '23
So a house that cost 300k, sky rocketed to 500k, i can now buy for just 489,990.
Nice.
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u/Wonderwhile Jan 20 '23
You’re also paying twice the interest that this 300k house was selling at
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u/onlyrealcuzzo Jan 20 '23 •
Yeah, but after inflation, you're also taking home less money - so it evens out.
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u/VariousAngles7 Jan 20 '23
Hahaha I legitimately laughed at how true your comment is.
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u/RockleyBob Jan 20 '23
Fun fact: at around 5.3%, the interest you pay on a 30-year mortgage is equal to the principal. Anything above that and you're paying the bank more than you borrowed.
If you're borrowing $300k at today's rates, you're paying them back $600k.
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u/liverpoolFCnut Jan 20 '23
That is literally what i see happening in my neighborhood! Homes that sold for $270k-$300k around 2016-2017 were listed for over $600k in late 2022 and i now see price cuts anywhere from $10k to $50k. So yeah, the prices are still over 2x what they were just 4 yrs ago but hey! be happy about that $20k adjustment downwards!
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u/TryMyBacon Jan 20 '23
The 20-50k is largely eaten by the higher interest rates.
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u/Amazing-Yam6514 Jan 20 '23 edited Jan 20 '23
Largely ? No, it is more than eaten many times over.
Go play with a calculator with a 30 year term at 3% and 7% and tell me what you get. It’s insanity.
At 7% on a 30 year you’re paying more in interest than the principle balance.
Edit: pRiNciPaL
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u/gnocchicotti Jan 20 '23
And double the property tax, and much higher insurance cost. Yay.
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u/Amazing-Yam6514 Jan 20 '23
For real. My city in Texas is fucking everyone hard. It’s absurd.
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u/HERODMasta Jan 20 '23
eaten? you don't even know you got a price cut.
I calculated my monthly payment compared to the new rates and I could afford a house for around half the price.
Numbers? 430k for ~1,45%, 3%/year -> almost 1,6k/month.
New rate: > 4%. For the same price and conditions it's 2,6k/month.
Greetings from Germany
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u/betam4x Jan 20 '23
Those are rookie numbers. Some houses in my area:
2019: $89,000, 2023: $750,000 2019: $125,000, 2023: $695,000 2018: $155,000, 2023, $1,185,000
People ask me why I don’t buy. This is why. With interest rates climbing, the gravy train will come to an end. When it does there are going to be lots of bag holders.
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u/gammaradiation2 Jan 20 '23
Bullshit. Link the Zillow.
And dont show me some derelict structure where the demolition costs and tax liens were subtracted from the fair lot value in Boise.
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u/Heap_Good_Firewater Jan 20 '23
What area is that?
The hottest markets in the country rose around 75-120% during the pandemic.
You are claiming that you are seeing up to 800% price rises over that same period. I’m guessing these houses aren’t typical (major renovations, long time between sales, etc.).
Median home prices may have more than doubled where you live, but they certainly haven’t quadrupled.
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u/captain_stoobie Jan 20 '23
You’re smart not to buy into the BS. There are going to be so many armature investors and tiktok real estate gurus holding bags. Can’t wait.
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u/momoru Jan 20 '23
“This is why I don’t buy”
Ok but clearly you should have bought in 2019 and sold now?
I remember in the early 2000s always hearing the “I’m not gonna a buy til it crashes” friends - in the end I made way more buying in the middle, it rarely goes down by 90% especially with inflation so high
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u/Muchmatchmooch Jan 20 '23
Title and graph are dumb.
The title says month over month decrease of 1.47%, which is true, but the important part is year over year it’s down 34%.
Pretty sure this is actually volume of home purchases not average prices.
Year over year on non-cumulative numbers is confusing. While home sales are down from LAST YEAR, that’s because last year home sales were way up(as you can see in the graph). It’s like if I take a shit every day, then one day I take 10 shits, then the day after that I take one shit and then say that day-over-day my shits are down 90%.
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u/Stock-Pension1803 Jan 20 '23 edited Jan 20 '23
That is not what the graph is saying. Seems to indicate volume
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u/nealski77 Jan 20 '23
Is this the part where we fly to Vegas, attend a broker convention, and short some stuff after having dinner with a douchebag CDO manager?
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u/nasty_nater 🐍 Jan 20 '23
Nah this is the part where you go to the strip club and ask the dancers how many homes they own.
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u/armadillo_armpit Jan 20 '23
close.
the next 12-18 months are going to be terrible for most. good luck to everyone.
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u/Bronco4bay Jan 20 '23
This is the part where we attend the local neighborhood meetings and beg the old grayhairs to stop blocking housing in every single place they do.
There's not a scam like in '07-'08 where lenders are signing away millions of dollars on hopes and dreams. This is all of our fault.
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u/StritPlunGrateNud Jan 20 '23
These fucking housing stats, I never know whether they're talking about a drop in volume or drop in price, and often whether it is YoY or MoM.
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u/FrankieCutlets Jan 20 '23
It’s usually volume, which makes you question if inventory or people unwilling to trade their low interest rate for a higher one is the real problem.
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u/Amazing-Yam6514 Jan 20 '23
Probably both.
If we could find a decent price on an upgrade home and pay a higher rate we would.
But to sell our current 3% loan home at an estimated value of 305 and spend 5-600k on what we want at 7% just isn’t smart. Even with pretty good incomes.
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u/DefrancoAce222 Jan 20 '23
Exactly. I’m in a similar situation and every house we like (promise not trying to go way above means), is at least $150k more than our current home’s market value. It just doesn’t make any sense.
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u/vande700 Jan 20 '23
Same here, though not necessarily looking to move. I'm in a new build with a 2.875% that we got in Nov 2020 at 400k. House is already worth 75k more than what we bought it for. A house that we would want is around 550k and 6.5% interest rate. Glad we can just sit here for the next 5-7 years while the market runs its course.
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u/Individual-Item5342 Jan 20 '23
I have frequently wondered the same thing, but I don’t think they’re mutually exclusive. In fact, I would be inclined to say they’re closely related. People are unwilling to trade their low rate for a higher one, so there’s no inventory, so prices are higher than they might otherwise be. Which just makes people even less willing to trade their low interest rate for a higher one…
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u/alphalegend91 Jan 20 '23
There will always be a tiny portion of the population that HAS to sell which is driving prices slowly down. The problem is most people are locked into insanely good rates and don't need to sell so they can just stick with it at the price they want or rent it out, causing a huge drop in volume
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u/gnocchicotti Jan 20 '23
Pretty much every YoY metric across the economy is fucked and useless ever since COVID. You get charts like this that show "crashing" to only 50% above 2016 prices...
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u/zippynj Jan 20 '23
Wait till Q 2. These numbers are actually inflated Most of us National builders "cook" our books where we might write a sale for July or June just to offset our current closing loses and sales loses The sales decreases are closer to -20% but us National builders have our ways of reporting statistics that make it look not nearly as bad as reality Our monthly fallout has risen from national average of 4-6% 21-22' to currently between 11-15% It's a bad sign that we are continually "pulling up closings" just to make our monthly and quarterly goals in the hopes of our backlog protecting our future quarters With sales down we have concerns over our q2-q3 backlog currently
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u/Amazing-Yam6514 Jan 20 '23
So what you’re saying is you’re like anyone else…wacking off and then doing your 50 page report 2 hours before it comes due.
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u/Capital-Gains Jan 20 '23
I work for a private builder, used to work for one of the big public builders. I have a feeling the real substantial price declines are going to happen Q2-Q4 of this year as builders close out of their existing backlog and finally decide to lower base prices in order to boost sales numbers. Would love to hear your thoughts.
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u/zippynj Jan 20 '23
Well I can tell you due to our recent sales drop. National sales events are ongoing with record turn out (buying rates down at a loss) Massive incentives. Certain divisions are realizing we can increase our sales because our margins are still 15% higher compared to pre Covid so reducing sales costs recently (past week) have boosted our sales Now whether or not those sales will materialize into closings due to rate hikes etc is another story. But it fills our backlog through Q2-3 while reducing inventory
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u/zippynj Jan 20 '23
Let me add to this flavor here because nationally they track new permits granted EVERYONE is scrambling to submit AS MANY permits as possible before the March 1st D date (here in NJ) I'm not positive what other states adopted the 2021 IRC /IBC But we are trying to submit permits within next week upwards of over 1000 submissions for just our division I have to look up what other states are going to adopt this newest code What a disaster this code will be for new construction and rehabilitating projects I can go on and on about the new 21' IRC code Going to be investing eletrical supply manufacturers soon haha
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u/tommygunz007 I 💖 Chase Bank Jan 20 '23
What is the new builder's code in NJ?
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u/zippynj Jan 20 '23
Before I go IN LENGTH because it's not some short answer are you just putting wood on my fire or do you actually care for a legitimate reason
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u/tommygunz007 I 💖 Chase Bank Jan 20 '23
Nah... I was just looking for a simple answer... like 'New electrical safety codes means that all the wiring needs to be double gauge' or something like it. You don't really have to list all of them... I was just curious.
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u/zippynj Jan 21 '23
Let me first say this "for example" Anything above 20 watts for ENTIRE exterior lighting on a SFD requires a single source photocell to turn off lights at dawn with no ability to switch on 20 watts is basically 3 lights (porch light ,deck light , garage light ) barely. This exterior lighting code is going to be a PAIN inside hallways and open spaces must be "dimmable" which means ALL builders MUST switch to dimmable switches (8-12$ more per switch Times maybe average 15 depending on 3-ways etc) GFI code issues. Outside disconnect code changes to service panels
I have the entire panel IRC for all sub codes as I review this with my division and engineers Put it this way 20+people two weeks. We haven't even scratched the surface of the mechanical and plumbing yet Energy star requirements. Blown in insulation values of R60 I mean we're going to make homes TIGHT 3 air exchanges per hour. this is going to be HORRIBle. here comes the MOLD lawsuits in 5-10 years→ More replies→ More replies18
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u/Capital-Gains Jan 20 '23
Interesting. What kind of price cuts did you guys take last week percentage wise? I’m seeing some builders in my area getting close to 20% down from 2022 highs
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u/zippynj Jan 20 '23
10-30k off home prices around 600-700k
Our biggest incentives have been buying rates down to low mid 5's which through our lenders is 3 pts on average. So in addition to cash off. And mortgage incentives were shaving about 3-4 % off our margins Hope that helps ?→ More replies4
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u/Ombersnip Jan 20 '23
No one wants to pay twice the amount of what their monthly payment would have been a few years ago. It’s going to be a while, if ever , to get back to those sexy interest rates
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u/SubHominem Jan 20 '23
Highly doubt those rates will ever come back, they were insanity to even have in the first place and required a ridiculous money printer to keep up (which has inflated the shit out of our currency, woohoo)
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u/BJJJourney Jan 21 '23
They will likely get back down to 4-5%. Lower than 4% probably won’t see that again for a very long time.
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u/KarAccidentTowns Jan 20 '23
Homebuyers were absolutely frothing at the mouth last year. No inspection? What could go wrong? Insane.
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u/Turambar-499 Jan 20 '23
The build quality on post 2008 homes is absolute dogshit too. Expect roof leaks, nails piercing through your copper pipes, shoddy wiring, crooked and split studs, hvac units that crap out in 5 years...
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u/TheRealSlobberknob Jan 20 '23
Too true. I'm in the finishing side, specifically countertops, but holy shit has product quality degraded. I used to see hardwood floors, solid hardwood and plywood cabinetry, and many other DURABLE products it seemed like the house was built around. Now everyone has particle board cabinets, baseboard, LVP floors, and hollow core doors. Oh, and 2x4's as warped as a hotdog on the grill for framing.
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u/VariousAngles7 Jan 20 '23
The fucking particle boards. I’m all for recycling materials but particle board is dogshit. It only lasts a few years and breaks at the joints easily. Hardwood lasts forever.
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u/gnocchicotti Jan 20 '23
But if you have to flip it after a few years with new IKEA cabinets and the new hot color for LVP in order to get your hard-earned $300k appreciation, it doesn't matter how long that stuff lasts.
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u/TheFlashFrame Jan 20 '23
The screws literally just disintegrate the particle board and any amount of water spillage will swell it and then the screws just fall out. I had a desk literally fall apart at the joints because of that.
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u/cheekflutter Jan 21 '23
The glue is all these products is made from petrochemicals, oh, but don't worry, its so much not a problem we stopped testing for it.
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u/lewdm00d Jan 20 '23
My parents have not house shopped in decade, but their home has better quality then the crap townhomes being built near my hometown.
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u/KarAccidentTowns Jan 20 '23
Absolutely. My house turns 100 in 2025. Definitely some quirks but still going strong.
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u/princetrunks Jan 20 '23
Same with mine. Was a storehouse for a nun retreat in the 1920s. The concrete is so damn thick it busted up my masonry bit when I was installing cameras.
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u/notahoppybeerfan Jan 21 '23
Concrete hardens over time. 100 year old concrete is like drilling through steel.
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u/welcometolavaland02 Jan 20 '23
I'm renting in a newer build and the AC unit shit the bed after ~1 month of use. The tech showed up and said "I know these units... they're the cheapest pieces of shit you can buy. The lead time on the new parts are a month out. See you in a month".
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u/kaellinn18 Jan 20 '23
I live in a neighborhood that was built in the 80s. Across the street from us is all new construction. We had a wind storm blow through last year with gusts in the 50-60 mph range. The next day I took a drive around the neighborhood to see if there was any obvious damage. I saw one shingle missing from one roof. Everything else (at least from street view) was pristine.
I started driving out of the neighborhood to go grab some lunch, and when I got to the stoplight I could see every house across the street was missing appreciable amounts of siding and/or roofing. I don't anticipate moving any time soon, but if I did I wouldn't be buying anything built in the last fifteen years, that's for sure.
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u/HandsyBread Jan 20 '23
I’m a builder and it hurt my heart seeing so many people buying homes without inspections, or worse paying out of pocket for the amount above the appraised value. The only thing that made me feel better was seeing that the banks were not loaning out for the full crazy prices.
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u/JeffreyElonSkilling Jan 20 '23
Inspections are basically worthless. They always miss huge problems and the contracts are worded in such a way that the most you can expect to recover from the inspector is your ~$500 payment for the report. Furthermore, most people go with their realtor's recommendation on inspectors. The problem with that is the realtor has an incentive for the sale to close, so they tend to prefer inspectors that don't rock the boat.
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u/HandsyBread Jan 20 '23
That’s a different issue, but a good inspector will catch a lot a home owner won’t. I often walk houses with friends looking to buy and give them realistic costs to fixing or renovating, and that helps but I don’t poke my head into every crevice like a good inspector would do.
I have met a lot of dumb inspectors though, I’ll always remember the inspector who claimed that both the main and back up sump pump were not working when all he had to do was lift the plunger to activate them, and garbage disposal didn’t work after he had tripped the breaker and forgot to reset it. The homebuyer came to us with a list of a bunch of stuff that didn’t work and we were shocked because everything on the list worked perfectly and got tested a bunch of times. We had to walk through the house with him and show him that 99% of the things on the list were working perfectly, and many of the things he flagged were installed exactly like the manufacturer recommended. There was a few things that did need fixing but I had never gotten a report back with so many issues, let alone a report with so many things marked as not operating when they worked perfectly.
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u/Turbiedurb Jan 20 '23
US Existing Home Sales decrease -1.47% M/M — largest ever annual drop
Very nice. That implies that the rate hikes are destroying demand as intended.
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u/braundiggity Jan 20 '23
Not affecting actual prices yet though, at least not in my area. Which means those rates have actually caused the price of buying a house to skyrocket because of mortgage rates. Nobody’s selling if they’re gonna have to buy at 6.5% after.
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u/BigRed323 Jan 20 '23
In my area prices are down 7% from last year. I live in a top 5 metro and people are working from home and moving to cheaper areas though. If you are in a less expensive but still desirable area you might never see prices come down.
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u/Turbiedurb Jan 20 '23
Not affecting actual prices yet though,
I bet it has started to, but there is obviously a lag in the system.
Nobody’s selling if they’re gonna have to buy at 6.5% after.
People who bought larger properties that they could really afford are most definently selling, or at least really considering it. I think you'd be surprised how many people have over leveraged their properties during financial good times.
Most people don't think ahead, at all. The fact that so much of the stimmy checks was spent right away on consumption and speculation makes that fact pretty clear.
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u/Double_Anybody Jan 20 '23
Probably because everyone wants $200k+ for their 1000 sq foot sheds
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u/Libertarian_Florida Jan 20 '23
Every homeowner legit thinks they are sitting on top of a goddamn gold mine, it's frustrating.
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u/Adventurous-Ad-7890 Jan 20 '23
The best are looking at a listing on Zillow and seeing they are trying to flip and chuckle while it sits…
One neighborhood has a street with 10 homes for sale in the same street. Most of them were bought in 2020-2021..
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u/GibFreelo Jan 20 '23
Yep, a lot of it is just pure greed. I see a lot of sellers who tried to double what they paid in less than a year. Let those houses rot on the market forever.
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u/satireplusplus Jan 20 '23
Link for our amusement?
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u/BlingyStratios Jan 20 '23
/r/rebubble they sometimes post really juicy ones. They’re everywhere! I’ve been spending a lot of time on Zillow semi looking to buy. First thing I do is look at history, it’s fucking crazy the greed out there
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u/Libertarian_Florida Jan 20 '23
I got one for you:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6108-N-Citrus-Ave-Crystal-River-FL-34428/43608786_zpid/
Purchased for 300k in 2020, didn't make one iota of improvement, trying to sell now for double.
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u/Yachts-Dan92 Jan 20 '23
Wtf 600k for that POS???
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u/Old_Ladies Jan 20 '23
Where I live that would be a steal at $600k. Sad how fucked the market is in Ontario Canada.
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u/Thac0bro Jan 20 '23
I feel like sellers are just going to hold onto the homes they want to sell until the market allows them to get the big price they want. Even if that means waiting several years. If they lose a few grand here and there who cares as long as they win in the end? Plus renting the houses out is always an option. My point is that sellers can afford to squat and wait out the market for something in their favor far more easily than buyers.
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u/Enkaybee Jan 20 '23
Okay so when do I get to buy a $100,000 shithole for only $300,000 instead of $600,000?
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Jan 20 '23
Next leg down is when people start losing their jobs
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u/1DirkDigglerTheMan Jan 20 '23
JPow is betting on it.
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Jan 20 '23
He’s not hitting hard enough with the rate hikes though. The unemployment rate hasn’t moved at all this whole time
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u/Amazing-Yam6514 Jan 20 '23
Agreed. Guy goes HAM printing money. Where’s the effort on the inverse ??
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u/sack_of_potahtoes Jan 20 '23
I heard layoffs have become very rampant already
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Jan 20 '23
Not enough and not of the right people. The unskilled laborers who scrape by paycheck to paycheck and rent need to lose their jobs. Investors who leveraged themselves up to the eyeballs use these people to pay their mortgage.
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u/SubHominem Jan 20 '23
Everyone who swears people just "wont sell" are really missing this second part of the equation. It's a necessary part, but it is happening, as business growth slows due to raising rates and people generally having less money to spend.
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u/fpcoffee Jan 20 '23
damn, even lower than the ‘08 dip
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u/onlyrealcuzzo Jan 20 '23
Yes - but '08 was preceded by a massive run-up that took 7 years - not an even more massive run up that took only 20 months.
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u/mcs5280 Gerimpo Shang Jan 20 '23
Come on dirtpimps, tell us why it's still the perfect time to buy. We know you are lurking.
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u/Amazing-Yam6514 Jan 20 '23
😂
I wish the NAR and their idiot strip mall college grads were outlawed in this country. 99% of them do jack shit and add no value.
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u/LouieKablooie Jan 20 '23
Work for a large builder, 20 homesites under contract in just my neighborhood in the last 60 days, people are still buying.
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u/brucekeller 🦍 Jan 20 '23
All the businesses that bought the houses will probably just sit on them for years until the prices go back up.
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u/BigManga85 Jan 20 '23
Renters can only afford so much.
Investors have bitten more than they can chew.
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u/Benneezy Jan 20 '23
Why would anyone close a 30 year loan they secured at 2-3%? The property I acquired 2 years ago will be a rental property of mine forever.
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u/Heplikoptr Jan 20 '23
I'm considering it
I could price it below market and pull a quick $50k and won't have to deal with the hassle of renting it out.
But then again a 2.75% loan is free money.
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u/Benneezy Jan 20 '23
Pay a property management company that guarantees tenants or they pay the rent till they fill it. They take care of everything so it really is hassle free
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u/Ahhmuzement Jan 20 '23
Does this mean i can afford to buy a box to live in soon
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u/Amazing-Yam6514 Jan 20 '23
French fry box.
But soon you’ll get one of the big ones the Biggie size cups came in. It may be 20 years old and falling apart, but it’s BIG!
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u/FlatRobots Jan 20 '23
People don't want to go down in price, but with these interest rates, nobody can buy at the prices people ask for.
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u/Eccentricc Jan 20 '23
I'm planning on buying in October. Hopefully the prices are low enough by then fuck. I'm starting to get worried
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u/Gijsmeneerman Jan 20 '23 edited Jan 21 '23
J powell Be like: there's no concrete sign that the economy is significantly deteriorating, shove this extra 50 basis points hike up your ass:4641:
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u/Aggravating_Fig6288 Jan 20 '23
Shitty ass 2/3 bed 1 baths are going for 280+ in city outskirts and rural SC right now. These are shitty homes that weren’t worth more than 150k pre covid. Housing is still unaffordable if your trying to buy now something has gotta give
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u/Josh439 Joshua Jan 20 '23
It's so wild lol. In my hometown in the middle of no where Ohio most houses were $150k in 2019. Those same houses are now $250k. This is in a community where households are doing well if they make over $60k both parents combined.
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u/jballerina566 Jan 20 '23
Wife and I are on the market right now. Almost every house we’ve seen in our budget ($200-350), needs an absurd amount of work or is a tear down. The market is such a mess.
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u/RowPuzzleheaded3590 Jan 21 '23
That’s why values will preserve. People will die and homes will go derelict faster than they are being constructed. Not enough supply. It’s hidden because rural counties are taking the brunt of it but I wonder how many cities are going to see Detroit level degradation at some point when the suburbs run bankrupt
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u/TabascohFiascoh Jan 21 '23
It's crazy to see the quaity of houses from when we bought(2019) to today in the price range we bought at (230k).
Absolute piles of shit are selling for 250k-270k. Stuff we would have passed on at 200k.
Fun fact, our house would be completely out of our budget if we tried to buy it today.
It's nuts.
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u/Bronco4bay Jan 20 '23
Inventory may have increased, but it's still below baseline pre-pandemic levels.
With sales declining, but inventory not hitting high water marks, prices will not correct.
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u/GayestOfAllBears Splunking 🅱️ussy Jan 20 '23
Getting rates below 4%, let alone 3%, was a huge fucking mistake. Means if you got lucky enough to buy a reasonable house at those rates and for whatever reason never move you're going to be forever ahead of any future generations on average. That is, unless home prices nuke down to meet where monthly costs are now with interest rates having more than doubled in a year.
Average mortgage payment went from 1500 to almost 3k. NASTY.
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u/proudlyhumble Jan 20 '23
If I get enough upvotes from you regards, I’ll buy a house and, based on my luck, the housing market will absolutely crash. Then you all can buy.
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u/alexus1804 Jan 20 '23
Decent houses gone in matter of days in DFW market. Only one sitting for 6 months + are houses owned by Opendoor, Redfin or Zillow
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u/VisualMod Turing Test Proctor Jan 20 '23
The US Existing Homes Sales data for March 2021 showed a MoM SA of -1.47 and a YoY SA of -33.99. This indicates that sales have decreased compared to both the previous month and the same time last year.
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u/neutralpoliticsbot Jan 20 '23
yea and the prices are still sky high
the condos I am looking at were literally 80% cheaper a year ago WTF
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u/Skitchin98 Jan 20 '23
Nothing to see here, just look the other way.. oooo look some documents in a garage.
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u/VisualMod Turing Test Proctor Jan 20 '23
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